Final 8: Capsule previews

If you're looking for a primer, here are some quick notes on each of the Final 8 teams. "Top 100" refers to the ranking system used here. Each team's probability of winning the tournament is based on their RPI and the chances of their facing different opponents in the tournament setup.


1. CARLETON
(#1 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 46.7%
2008-2009 units rankings: 1st on offence, 3rd on defence
Players in the top 100: Aaron Doornekamp, Stu Turnbull, Kevin McCleery, Michael Kenny
How they got here: Host and OUA champ. 21-1 regular season (they were actually winless at one point, losing their first in Windsor), beat York and Ottawa and Western in the playoffs, all by at least 14 points
Last year: You need to ask?
Recently: Won five straight, 2003 to 2007

8. ST. FRANCIS XAVIER (#9 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 1.6%
2008-2009 units rankings: 2nd on offence, 15th on defence
Players in the top 100 who are allowed to play: Christian Upshaw, William Silver, Terrence Taylor
How they got here: Wild-card. 17-3 regular season, lost 72-60 to Dal in AUS final
Last year: Did not participate: finished second in the AUS and lost a playoff semifinal
Recently: Won in 2000 and 2001; lost 2006 semifinal to UVic

Spread: Carleton by 14




4. WESTERN (#6 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 4.0%
2008-2009 units rankings: 5th on offence, 6th on defence
Players in the top 100: Keenan Jeppesen, Brad Smith, Alex Brzozowicz, Andrew Wedemire
How they got here: Won the OUA West. 19-3 during the season, then knocked off Waterloo (by 12) and Windsor (by 32).
Last year: Beat SMU in the first round, lost to eventual champion Brock in the semis

5. OTTAWA (#3 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 12.8%
2008-2009 units rankings: 3rd on offence, 5th on defence
Players in the top 100: Josh Gibson-Bascombe, Dax Dessureault, Josh Wright
How they got here: Third-place in OUA: only lost to Western and Carleton all year
Last year: Did not participate: lost the OUA play-in game to Brock
Recently: Lost a 2007 semifinal to Carleton (by 21) and a 2005 quarterfinal to Carleton (by 22)

Spread: Ottawa by 4.5




2. CALGARY (#4 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 6.8%
2008-2009 units rankings: 6th on offence, 12th on defence
Players in the top 100: Ross Bekkering, Henry Bekkering, Robbie Sihota, Tyler Fidler
How they got here: CW winners: defeated UBC after knocking off Alberta and Trinity, following a 17-5 season
Last year: Did not participate, somewhat unexpectedly; one of two Canada West teams to win 18 games, but lost to UBC and Brandon to finish fourth in the CW Final Four and out of the Final 8

7. CONCORDIA (#5 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 6.2%
2008-2009 units rankings: 20th on offence, 9th on defence
Players in the top 100: Damian Buckley, Evens Laroche
How they got here: Quebec champs with a three-point win over UQAM the provincial final, described by our Jared Book here.
Last year: Did not participate: lost Quebec final to Laval, 81-63
Recently: Consolation champs in 2007

Spread: Calgary by 6.5




3. UBC (#2 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 20.5%
2008-2009 units rankings: 4th on offence, 4th on defence
Players in the top 100: Josh Whyte, Chris Dyck
How they got here: CW runner up: beat TWU and Brandon, then lost to Dinos by four
Last year: Lost by five to Brock in the first round, then lost consolation final to Laval
Recently: First-round exits in 2007 and 2006 (they must really hate those by now)

6 DALHOUSIE (#15 in RPI)
Probability of winning: 1.4%
2008-2009 units rankings: 29th on offence, 2nd on defence
Players in the top 100: Simon Farine, Josh Beattie
How they got here: Won the AUS: third-place finish (13-7) but squeaked by Acadia (88-85), Cape Breton (78-77) and then beat X 72-60 in playoffs (Chad Lucas was there)
Last year: Did not participate: lost to Acadia in AUS semifinal

Spread: UBC by 13.5
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2 comments:

  1. I find it rather odd that the only Carleton starter not amongst the top 100...Rob Saunders...was named top defensive player.
    File this under things that make you go hmmmm.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It doesn't really make me go hmmmm. That Top 100 is mostly an offensive ranking (it's based on what's in the boxscore, after all), so it makes sense that a defensive-minded player like Saunders is underrated by it.

    ReplyDelete