Football: Canada West playoff scenarios

(Second in a series.)

The four Canada West playoff teams have been determined, and Alberta's finishing fourth regardless of this last week. But the other teams can finish anywhere from first to third. Let's go through the four scenarios. (Technically eight, but the UBC/Manitoba game doesn't affect anything in the standings.*)

The relevant games are Regina at Saskatchewan (Friday night) and Alberta at Calgary (Saturday).

Scenario No. 1: Wins by Saskatchewan and Calgary (62.4% chance of happening)
Alberta (4) at Saskatchewan (1), Regina (3) at Calgary (2)

The Rams played the Dinos close in both losses, so in this case the 2-vs.-3 game might not be a foregone conclusion. Alberta might have a tougher time at Mosaic in Saskatoon, though.

Scenario No. 2: Wins by Regina and Calgary (26.3% chance of happening)
Alberta (4) at Calgary (1), Saskatchewan (3) at Regina (2)

Intraprovincial matchups everywhere! This would be pretty great, storyline-wise, since the Huskies would have lost to Regina to lose their home game, then would have to face the same team the following week. There's also a Dinos-Bears immediate rematch here, obviously.

Scenario No. 3: Wins by Saskatchewan and Alberta (8.0% chance of happening)
Alberta (4) at Saskatchewan (1), Regina (3) at Calgary (2)

Okay, so these playoff matchups are actually very likely, since all they really require is a Huskie win.

Scenario No. 4: Wins by Regina and Alberta (3.4% chance of happening)
Alberta (4) at Regina (1), Calgary (3) at Saskatchewan (2)

This is the scenario that would throw everything into mild disarray. Regina goes from third to first, Saskatchewan from first to second, and Calgary from second to third.

For the Rams, it's the difference between hosting the second-tier Golden Bears and going all the way to Calgary to face a team they've already lost to twice this year. Even if they have a good chance of beating the Dinos, that's still a big difference. But it requires a Friday night win in Mosaic and some help from the Bears.


* UBC's recap says the Thunderbirds are "still in the picture" but I beg to differ: the best they can do is finish tied for fourth at 3-3 with Alberta and I don't think they can win the tiebreaker (having split the season series but losing it on aggregate, 64-60). I may be wrong on this, and so I welcome corrections.
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  1. FYI - Mosaic is in Regina...The Huskies play at Griffith's Stadium in PotashCorp Park.

  2. So they do.

    Confusing Regina with Saskatoon, and Wolfville with Sackville. Can you tell I was born and raised in Ontario?

  3. Rob - on the UBC front, you're bang on. The T-Birds kissed their playoff hopes goodbye last weekend when Alberta won.

    Even if UBC wins this weekend and Alberta loses, the Bears have the tie-breaking edge thanks to points for and against from the two teams games this season as you pointed out.