Basketball: Wednesday's OUA West preview

This week's quick glance at the mid-week matchups in the OUA West for January 13th:

Women

Brock (7-3) at McMaster (6-4)

The Badgers are trying hard to prove that they are in the upper echelon of teams in the division, sitting in the shadows of Windsor and Western. Don't forget about this team...they may surprise you this season. I expect them to pull off a road upset in Hamilton.

Waterloo (2-8) at Windsor (10-0)

The Warriors are coming off of a tough loss on Saturday which saw the one-win Gryphons come back to defeat them in the 4th quarter. It would have to be one for the ages for them to rebound on the road against the undefeated Lancers. Windsor goes to 11-0.

Western (8-2) at Guelph (2-8)

Angela Orton's Gryphons are on an emotional high after Saturday's win at Waterloo, but this is a team that has only three players with more than one year of OUA experience, in Alex Russell, Alex Yallin, and Kara Muhlhausen. They won't be able to compete with the Mustangs, and Amanda Anderson could go off for a season-high point total with a group of rookie guards trying to check her.

Men

Brock (4-6) at McMaster (5-5)

The Marauders were swept in Thunder Bay on the weekend, which dropped them to .500 on the season and saw them slip out of the Top Ten for the first time this season. Coach Joe Raso and his team need to rebound at home against the Badgers, and they're going to need more players to step up than just Keenan Jeppesen night after night. I expect them to get back on track with a win here, but if they don't, this season may just be spiralling out of control.

Waterloo (6-4) at Windsor (8-2)

This is by far the marquee matchup of the night. The Warriors are in third place and on the cusp of going on a big run in the coming weeks. Their depth off the bench is tops in the league, and with 8 seniors, this is a team that is reminding a lot of people of the 2005 Warriors that went 19-3 and on to the Final 10 in Halifax. With 8 players who are capable of scoring 15-20 points in a game, they are going to be a tough matchup for the Lancers. The key matchup in this game will be Matt Hayes and Nigel Johnson-Tygter. Whoever controls the paint will control this game. If this was in Waterloo, I would give the edge to the Warriors, but a Wednesday game in Windsor is never easy, and I think the Lancers will scrape through on this one, but barely. (I wouldn't have said that a week ago.)

Western (6-4) at Guelph (3-7)

Without Jay Mott in the lineup, I don't think the Gryphons will be able to compete with a good Mustangs team, unless they get BIG production from rookies John Brutto and Evans Otchere. Dan McCarthy, Jonathan Moscatelli, and Adam Bering are taking on a big work load, but the young players need to chip in significantly.


Now, a quick note about the new rankings that came out today. I can't say if the constant griping I (and others) do about the archaic protective measures in place to prevent excessive movement up and down the rankings have had any effect, but I can't even begin to tell you how pleased I was today to see what is arguably the fairest Top Ten of the season. McMaster drops 5 spots OUT of the Top Ten, Lakehead moves UP four spots, and Ottawa makes a long-awaited debut. I still have a couple of minor issues (ahem...Toronto), but for the moment, I'm content to revel in the positive and commend the coaches on getting it right.
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17 comments:

  1. You might be impressed with Waterloo, but I'm not.
    How you can compare this team to the one in 2005 is beyond me.
    That team was 19-3 and 26-8 overall.
    This team is 6-4 and just 11-8 overall so far.
    Considering they have 8 seniors...well, what you see is what you get.
    I don't think they're going to get much better than this.
    For one thing, their road record stinks.
    Sure, they picked up a win at U of T...who BTW are playing some really inconsistent ball this year, but overall the Warriors are just 1-4 away from home.
    Their home wins have come against Guelph, RMC, Queen's,
    Laurentian and York.
    Apart from Queen's who are having a decent year for them,
    those other four teams are the worst in the OUA and probably among the worst in the CIS.
    I'd be stunned if Windsor loses to them.

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  2. Keep in mind that I said I agree with you that Windsor will beat them first of all.

    They've beaten U of T twice, by the way...not just once.

    The reason I compare them to the 2005 team is the TEAM aspect...no one-dimensional top scorer. I understand Cam McIntyre can go off for 30 on a whim, but it's a group that functions together.

    Talk to me at the end of the season. As I proved with my analysis of Windsor, I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong.

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  3. My predictions for this evening.

    Windsor by 7-10 over Waterloo.
    Mac by 15-18 over Brock.
    UWO by 8-11 over Guelph.

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  4. Waterloo 83
    Windsor 71

    Sean, seems you have proven to be prophetic about those Lancers. How the heck did Waterloo win at the Dennis Center - for the second straight year?? Is there another team in the OUA that has won there in back to back years? Who does Waterloo have that was even an All Star last year? Windsor should have been better at every facet of the game, including coaching - what is going on?

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  5. Windsor 1-20 from 3 pts. Not going to win too many games with that stat line.

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  6. I said before that I would be stunned if Windsor lost to Waterloo at home.
    Well, colour me stunned.
    Not hard to figure out why.
    Cam McIntyre was only 7/21 but 6/15 from 3, by far the most productive player.
    Shooting percentage was actually better for Windsor overall,
    but they couldn't make a three to save their lives.
    If the Lancers just made 25% of their attempted 3's they would have eked out a win.
    Obviously, Lakehead is laughing.
    This puts them two up on Windsor in the loss column.

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  7. Regarding Waterloo over Windsor, I have only this to say:

    Na-na. Na-na. Boo boo.

    PB

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  8. A couple of things re: Waterloo vs. Windsor...

    Pointing out that Waterloo has no All-stars from last year, and suggesting Windsor has an edge with regards to coaching...well, that's proving my point. A good team is going to beat a solid coach with star players. Waterloo functions as a TEAM.

    Team basketball is what won the game vs. Windsor. It's a cop-out to say that if Windsor made even 25% of their shots, they would have eked out a win. They were trailing by 13 at half, never got close in the second half, and gave up 32 points in one quarter.

    Give credit where it's due, Waterloo won this game, Windsor didn't just hand it to them because they couldn't hit 3's.

    Cam MacIntyre was the top scorer, but how about Ben Frisby with 17 points, Matt Hayes with a near double-double, and Dave Burnett with 6 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals? Add in 5 more players with 6-10 points and you have fundamental team basketball.

    The only game this team has lost since the New Year has been on the road at Brock, in a game they played with the assistant coaches coaching the team since Tom Kieswetter wasn't there due to the death of his father.

    And on a side note, I watched Amanda Anderson go off for 25 points tonight, just as I predicted.

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  9. Yes they gave up 32 points in the second quarter, but Windsor outscored Waterloo in the other three.
    Windsor's three point shooting futility was a FACTOR in this game, not an excuse.
    When a team is outscored 36-3 from the arc, that is a huge difference maker.
    Even the worst teams in the country shoot better than 5% from the perimeter.
    Waterloo deserved to win for sure, but obviously the Lancers were their own worst enemy.

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  10. Waterloo had 25 assists on 28 made baskets - as the ROAD TEAM. Wow, was anyone there to see this? They must've really shared the ball well. ANy other comments besides the 3 point shooting? Was Waterloo really the better team here? Do they have a shot at catching the Lancers for 2nd and a bye?

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  11. I'd wager that the next time Windsor & Waterloo play, the Lancers won't shoot 5% from 3 pt. land. Granted, the Lancers have to do a much better job of defending. Most of the Warrior threes were uncontested. Conversely, the Warriors challenged most of Windsor's threes.

    Also, Windsor has an excuse for inconsistency, as they have 2 starting guards who are rookies. Meanwhile, the Warriors have 4 5th year starters.

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  12. Making excuses already? Isn't it a bit early for excuses from Windsorville? ;)

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  13. Windsor 8-3....half way into the season.
    I'm sure Ollie will take another 8-3 over the next 11 games.

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  14. Windsor has a peculiar trait for winning games you'd probably think they wouldn't
    but losing games to teams there's no way they should lose to.
    Last year, Windsor handed Carleton a 12 point loss to open the season, which was the Ravens only loss all year.
    But two weeks later, Windsor loses to Laurentian in Sudbury.
    This season, Windsor loses to Queen's and Waterloo at home but beats Ottawa on the road.
    There's no figuring out these guys.

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  15. First of all, I find it difficult to respond to the Comments on here when everyone keeps posting as Anonymous. I'm not sure if I'm talking to one person or 6, or who is making multiple points. Pick a name and post with that...it'll make for more stimulating discussion in the Comments section. I don't care if you make up a fake one...post under LancerFan, or CamTheMan, or ChetIsTheBomb for all I care (those seem like decent options for this thread, no?)

    Now to respond...

    25 of 28 assists proves my point about the team concept.

    Who is anointing the Lancers with a bye already? This is a tough division with half a season left to play.

    Similarly, who is it to determine who should and shouldn't win a specific game? I told you in my initial preview that this was going to be a tough game for Windsor.

    Sounds like some excuses to me, as one poster pointed out...you want to point out Windsor's rookies and Waterloo's seniors. Convenient after a Windsor loss. After a Windsor win, it would assuredly be Waterloo's lack of all-stars, and Windsor's excellent recruiting. Very convenient.

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  16. Windsor 82 Mac 77...with a Lakehead loss tonight...Windsor is in first with LH.

    Lancers have actually been pretty solid on the road this year...other than the 3rd quarter meltdown vs Carleton.

    2 more wins on the road vs UWO & Brock would be huge.

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  17. But Lakehead didn't lose...so they're still in first.

    Nice try, but you can't spin it that Windsor would be in first IF Lakehead loses.

    Guelph would be in first IF they won all of their games.

    Come on...

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