Saturday, February 26, 2011

Men's basketball: Catching up with the playoffs

There are eight elimination games today ... let's go through them all, in order of how likely the underdog is to win the series.


Manitoba at UBC
Series: 1-0 UBC (106-75)
Odds of Manitoba coming back: 0.5%

This series really isn't close. UBC used ten players for ten minutes or more in Game 1, grabbing 28 defensive rebounds to Manitoba's 31 total rebounds. The Bisons turned the ball over 25 times. UBC also had a 24-4 run to end the first half. Nothing short of a miracle would give the Bisons a series win.


Regina at Saskatchewan
Series: Saskatchewan 1-0 (98-75)
Odds of Regina coming back: 3.8%

More of the same ... when you win by 23, and were up 19 at the half, is there any doubt you'll win again the next day? Though two players on both teams (Jamelle Barrett and Rejean Chabot; Jeff Lukomski and Paul Gareau) broke 20, so there's that. Nolan Brudehl had 22 rebounds.


Ryerson at Carleton
Odds of Ryerson winning: 8.4%

We had some fun when Rams coach Roy Rana called York the most talented team in the conference. I think he knows full well how talented the Carletons are, and is about to be reminded.


UFV at Trinity Western
Series: 1-1 (81-80 UFV, 86-69 TWU)
Odds of UFV winning: 20.9%

At least two of four Canada West quarterfinal series will go the distance, with this one being the most one-sided. The Spartans are pretty good, you might have heard, and the first-game comeback by the Cascades might seem a long time ago once today's fourth quarter rolls around. Still, UFV has about a 1 in 5 chance.


Western at Lakehead
Odds of Western winning: 25%

Here is the Lakehead-centric preview. (And here is the one-sentence post on the Mustangs' Backcourt Club blog that says nothing about the game other than the opponent and time.) This should be a good one; home games for the GGOD[T]s usually are. Were I not catching a 7:00 movie, I'd be watching this 7:00 tipoff.


Laurier at Windsor
Odds of Laurier winning: 39.4%

Chris Oliver says his team has to play defence in this one, and that "Laurier knows they'll need their best effort." The Hawks had a bit of a scare Wednesday night, when Guelph (who barely made the playoffs) led by four at the half. (I said it was only a "bit" of a scare.)


Victoria at Alberta
Series: 1-1 (76-59 Alberta, 85-79 Victoria)
Odds of Victoria winning: 39.5%

An early pick of mine for the Final 8, the Vikes tied the best-of-three yesterday. It may be cold in Edmonton (who am I kidding, it's always cold in Edmonton), but it's not on the UVic sideline, as they shot 60% in the second game. Granted, that was after a mere 40% in the first.


Ottawa at Toronto
Odds of Ottawa winning: 44.4%

Today's closest game: the Gee-Gees and the Blues. Here's Mark Wacyk's take on it (and the other OUA games). Of course, since this game is between schools from the two largest cities in Ontario, none of the daily newspapers in those cities appears to have previewed the game at all. (Then again maybe that's just as well.)

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