Football: Middle of the OUA clear as muddle

A weekend in Southern Ontario -- which, in case you're wondering, did involve taking in Queen's 80-0 win over York -- precluded posting on Saturday and Sunday.

Anyhow, everyone is aware of the possibility of a four-way tie for the 4-5-6 seeds in the OUA? A fellow media type projected the final standings in the wake of Saturday's games:
Queen's 8-0
Western: 7-1
Laurier: 6-2
Guelph: 4-4
McMaster: 4-4
Windsor: 4-4
Ottawa: 4-4
Toronto: 2-6
Waterloo: 1-7
York: 0-8
What would have to happen:
  • Guelph: Beats York Saturday, loses at Western Oct. 18
  • Windsor: Beats Waterloo Friday, loses at Mac Oct. 18
  • McMaster: loses at Laurier Saturday, beats Windsor Oct. 18
  • Ottawa: loses at Queen's Saturday, beats U of T Oct. 18
Guelph and Windsor should be more than competitive in those Oct. 18 games. Considering how each team's season has unfolded, you wouldn't bet your stock portfolio on either team in a road game, even with a good market.

Guelph and Ottawa do not play this season, so that complicates figuring out which three teams advance if point differential comes into play. I'm honestly asking, would it come down to the point spread in games vs. common opponents, or all games?
  • Ottawa (+1): Three-point win over Mac, two-point loss to Windsor
  • Guelph (+25): 26-point win over Windsor, one-point loss to Mac
  • Windsor (-24): Loss to Guelph, two-point win over Ottawa, game at Mac on Oct. 18
  • Mac (+2): Three-point loss to Ottawa, one-point win over Guelph, still has to face Windsor
If it's all games, Ottawa (242 points for, 118 against, +124) is in good position. Guelph is plus-57 over the season, Mac is plus-22 and Windsor is minus-35).

Guelph does have that game against York... just sayin'.

Suppose Guelph upsets Western and get to 5-3 and the other three end up tied in the exact same scenario described above. In that event, it would come down to point differential in the games between the teams. If Mac beats Windsor by three points, Ottawa (as the No. 5 seed) and the Marauders get the last two spots. If Mac won by five or more, they would get the fifth seed. That's how crazy this is.

McMaster probably is not strong enough to beat an improving Laurier team on Saturday, but crazier things have happened. (True, Laurier just beat Ottawa, which only beat Mac by three, but each event has less to do with the other than you might think).

It's quite possible both the Marauders and Guelph could win out and finish 5-3, creating a logjam for the 3-4-5 seeds. Windsor could end up claiming the last spot if it's tied with a 4-4 Ottawa team.

It's a remote possibility, but the Gee-Gees could miss the playoffs if they don't win on Saturday in Kingston. Who would have thought that in August?
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  1. Damn you Sager. I have a column about this but it doesn't run until Wednesday. Still, that's no reason for you not to check it out.

  2. I just do agate at the Ottawa Sun ... far easier to just throw the question out there for an audience of dozens, then have to have the answers for a readership in the tens of thousands.