Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Back in September, we looked at who the early-season leaders were in various yardage categories, above and beyond what was expected.

The example I gave was Brad Sinopoli, who threw for 345 yards in 38 attempts against Windsor. But, since Windsor's pass defence against everyone but Sinpoli gave up 7.2 yards per attempt, or about 274 per 38 attempts, Sinopoli is awarded only 71 surplus yards for that game.

Now that the season's over, we can take a look at the full 2010 statistics.

Let's start with the passing leaders. Here are the total surplus yardage results for everyone from the 2010 regular season with at least 112 pass attempts, or 14 per game:
RkPlayerTeamAttSurplus
1ShoirySHE254574
2QuinlanMAC209471
3SinopoliOTT280467
4NixonSSK225333
5Prud'hommeLAV145298
6BrownSMU165207
7HotchkissMTA207194
8ChapdelaineQUE219178
9MuellerREG245168
10MarshallUWO149157
11RossettiGUE170103
12AndrewsBIS21894
13DzwilewskiCGY10342
14KennedyWSR1538
--CIS AVERAGE------0
15Nadeau-PiuzeMTL228-13
16WilliamsMAN216-14
17KellyWLU149-71
18WensleySFX164-129
19MorsinkCON272-132
20MarchandALB215-206
21GravesACA203-222
22GreeneUBC298-229
23GillisTOR298-283
24BondyMCG290-314
25CoutuYOR129-353

Jean-Philippe Shoiry not only tops the list by total yardage (correction: tops it by 100 yards), but also by surplus yards per attempt, with just a tiny bit more than Kyle Quinlan.

Beyond those two, we have the rest of the big five, so to speak, then we get into a second tier from Micah Brown all the way to Donnie Marshall.

Not a lot of surprises here. With quarterbacks, though, we're usually looking at the whole team's passing performance. The #2 QB gets far less playing time than, say, the #2 RB or receiver.

**

Receiving leaders (at least 20 receptions; top and bottom 10 only)

RkPlayerTeamRecSurplus
1CharbonneauSHE55418
2BolducOTT39262
3EtienneSSK24258
4TrevailUWO21158
5GardnerGUE30156
6DimitroffGUE23149
7KouameMTL20126
8DiCroceMAC23119
9AdjeiteyOTT36115
10RossMTA34109
..........
50HughesOTT55-57
51BastienCON23-58
52KohlertSSK36-63
53GeorgeSSK22-64
54OseiSFX23-67
55SheahanQUE49-70
56McConkeyREG32-89
57BrownALB25-96
58ShusterUBC24-98
59SinotteMCG52-168

With Shoiry on the first list, and Simon Charbonneau on this one, it's not surprising that the Argos are all over them. (Serge Vleminckx says Toronto are not allergic to Canadian quarterbacks...I guess four pass attempts in a blowout game means you're not allergic, but you may still have mild sinus problems, to mangle the metaphor.)

**

This next list bothers me a bit, because the running back everyone considers the best in CIS is not in the top 10, and is just fourth in his own conference. So it will make some wonder what the value of this "surplus yards" system is, and I'm honestly one of them, but let's take a look anyway.

Rushing leaders (at least 40 attempts, top and bottom 10 only):
RkPlayerTeamAttSurplus
1Sinopoli*OTT39296
2GranbergQUE57202
3QuinlanMAC60165
4MarshallUWO65157
5Dumas-GouletSHE75146
6HippersonUWO108143
7DzwilewskiCGY52128
8LochardLAV66127
9WalterCGY117113
10LevesqueLAV74112
11SeneMON176107
.........
38MurphyMCG40-48
39Jean-BaptisteBIS70-63
40HowellMTA76-72
41La ToucheWLU47-72
42PickettMTA98-73
43DonnellyCON51-79
44LefaiveWSR52-84
45BennettWLU99-104
46AtkinsSFX77-111
47HenryMAN133-161

* Sinopoli is No. 1 with less than the required number because, barring disaster, he wouldn't drop below 202 after one more rushing attempt.

Here's the thing about Rotrand Sene. He has rushed for more yards than anyone, both in raw totals and on a per-game basis. But he averages less than 6 yards per rushing attempt.

This is not necessarily a bad thing -- gain five yards every play and you never turn the ball over, after all. However, under our framework here, his value is diminished.

For example, against St. F-X, he had 220 yards. But that was in 33 attempts. Every other running back averaged 5.4 per attempt, or 178 yards per 33. Meaning he only gets credit for 41 of those yards. It's the same logic I used to explain the Sinopoli example above, but I thought I would repeat it here just because the Sene case is somewhat special.

Ryan Granberg is second on this list almost entirely because of his performance against Toronto, during which he picked up 167 yards mostly in garbage time. So adjust that downwards however you wish.


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