Football: Our FRC-CIS Top 10 ballots following Week Seven

Continuing with our ballot-posting, here's how we saw things following Week Seven, which featured Montreal edging Laval and a McMaster-Windsor game that may not have been as close as it looked.

Rob Pettapiece's ballot: 

1. McMaster
2. Calgary
3. Laval
4. Montreal
5. Western
6. Queen's
7. Regina
8. Guelph
9. Sherbrooke
10. Acadia

Rationale: I don't know what the Mustangs were doing down at 9th last week—I was the only one here to have them higher than that—because they have had a very solid season and should be in the middle tier, not the bottom one. As usual, the top four don't change, and the bottom is roughly the same. There aren't any teams I like enough to put 9th or 10th without reservations.

Evan Daum's ballot:

1. McMaster
2. Calgary
3. Laval
4. Montreal
5. Guelph
6. Queen's
7. Regina
8. Western
9. Acadia
10. Manitoba

Rationale: Unless McMaster loses, they'll be my No. 1 team. There was, however, some change inside my top three from a week ago, as Calgary and Laval flip-flopped in my poll. I had some thoughts of bumping Montreal into the three spot, but in my opinion the Carabins narrow win over Laval doesn't mean they're suddenly better than a Rouge et Or team that handled them the first time the two teams met. Full credit to Guelph for a win over Queen's, as the Gryphons jump up a couple spots. Regina drops two spots, but that comes after a Marc Mueller-less loss, so take that for what it's worth. Only other change from my poll is Western and Manitoba swapping positions.

Kevin Garbuio's ballot:

1. McMaster
2. Calgary
3. Laval
4. Montreal
5. Guelph
6. Queen's
7. Western
8. Acadia
9. Saskatchewan
10. Manitoba

Rationale: The top two is fairly self-explanatory; both teams seem to be playing on a different level right now, winning close when they need to, but also flexing when given the opportunity. I have Laval over Montreal because they handled their business on the road. They now just need to win one more game and they will lock up home field for the playoffs and put themselves in line for another trip to the Uteck Bowl. Guelph's come from behind victory has been their most impressive to date. Not many teams can say they were down 28-3 vs a Pat Tracey defence and came back with 30 unanswered points. I have Acadia over Saskatchewan and Manitoba and omitted Regina because I was impressed to see Acadia unveil a run game this weekend, led by rookie Thomas Troop. I thought the Saskatchewan-Manitoba game was extremely sloppy, and the loss of Drew Burko for Sask. could be huge. Regina really needs Marc Mueller to come back and soon. Without him they are a fringe playoff team, and it showed on Saturday.

Andrew Bucholtz's ballot:

1. Calgary
2. McMaster
3. Laval
4. Montreal
5. Guelph
6. Queen's
7. Regina
8. Western
9. Acadia
10. Manitoba

Rationale: See this week's CIS Countdown show (specifically, this part) for why I continue to be the lone dissenter on Calgary over McMaster. Laval edges Montreal still despite their narrow loss this week thanks to their season-series victory (in point margin), but Montreal's a very close fourth. Guelph is a very unconvincing fifth in my mind; they're there because I can't justify bumping anyone else up, especially after Queen's collapse against them. Guelph, Queen's and Western aren't that far apart though. Regina is still second-best out West in my mind, especially if Mueller returns soon, while Manitoba's back at the moment and Acadia's done enough to hang around the Top 10 for the moment.
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7 comments:

  1. I assume Pettapiece went to UWO. Can't rationalize how you put Western ahead of both Guelph and Queen's.

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    Replies
    1. Guilty. You got me. I look back fondly on all those imaginary years I spent in London, and it influences my vote in a poll that has no effect whatsoever on the game. My vote certainly has nothing to do with, say, Western's outscoring both those teams by about 40%.

      I am always amused by those who think the top 10 poll is supposed to blindly reflect "who beat who." If that's the case, you don't need 30 of us to vote!

      Delete
    2. "My vote certainly has nothing to do with, say, Western's outscoring both those teams by about 40%."

      Are you saying the fact that Greg Marshall ran up the score against UW [54-10] & UofT [62-7] is an important consideration for you?

      Isn't the fact that UWO couldn't outscore Guelph or Queen's a more important consideration?

      Delete
  2. What I see is three relatively equal teams yet Western has lost 3 games.

    Counter points:

    Using your logic, Western should also be ranked above Laval and Montreal.

    Also, Western does not have the QB that started against Mac, Queen's and Guelph. Better or worse without Donnie Marshal?

    I think you have to give some credit to Guelph for beating everyone except Mac.

    Happy to have amused you.

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    Replies
    1. Actually, no, the logic doesn't extend that far if only because there are two parts to a football team, and the top two Quebec teams have kept their opponents around 11-13 points per game. Western's at 20.

      Besides, Western and Montreal/Laval don't play the same opponents. Western and Guelph/Queen's did:

      Western: +55 Toronto, +23 Windsor, -6 McMaster, +53 Laurier = +31 on average

      Queen's: +28 Toronto, +17 Windsor, -13 McMaster, +26 Laurier = +14.5

      Guelph: +2 Toronto, +21 Windsor, -41 McMaster, +3 Laurier = -3.75

      If a 16-point difference (or 34-point difference!) gets thrown out the window because Western lost to Queen's and Guelph by one score each, then we really are just tracking wins and losses in the poll and there's no need for anyone to vote.

      Delete
    2. There is a reason that the NCAA computer rankings cap the margin of victory at 30 points. Anything above that is meaningless. Recalculate using that widely accepted concept and you get Western +19.25, Queen's +14.5 and Guelph -1.0.

      It really sounds like you view your top 10 as a power ranking. Wins and losses are important. The only way I can see your argument that won-loss records are not important is if the teams are in different conferences. A 4-3 team in the OUA may be equal to 6-1 or 5-2 in another conference, say the AUS. But Western, Queen's and Guelph all play in the same conference and faced each other. Head to head results are worth more than margins of victory against lesser teams.

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    ReplyDelete