Calculated Reactions: 2014's top CCAA women's basketball prospects

For the fourth time, it's another look at the CCAA players whose performance suggests they can play one level up.

**

First, the necessary background and explanation. To identify these prospects, we take 2013-14 CCAA stats and translate them to the CIS level based on the many players from past years who have played CCAA and CIS in consecutive years. Currently for women's basketball, we can translate ACAC (Alberta), OCAA (Ontario), and ACAA (Atlantic) stats.

Every category — from shooting percentages to rebounds to steals to percentage of shots taken that are three-pointers to usage rate — is projected based on historical averages for players going from one level to the next. We now have the equivalent of about 15,000 WBB minutes in these comparisons. All these CCAA-to-CIS players are the basis for our assumptions about the relative level of the two leagues. For illustration purposes only, if turnovers per 40 minutes tends to rise 15% among these players on average, that's the translation we apply to everyone's CCAA turnover stats. Obviously there are several factors we're not accounting for, but this does serve as a handy way to identify the standouts among hundreds of players across the country, and to (for lack of a better word) ignore those whose overall game might not translate to the CIS level.

Minutes played are projected, though projecting playing time is generally an even more foolish thing to do than projecting rate stats, and so those numbers should not be taken seriously. The per-game statistics assume each player appears in 20 games; the projected season totals are therefore simply divided by 20 for everyone to get a per-game estimate. Some of the original minutes-played numbers had to be adjusted, usually in the case where the team-wide MIN for a single game was 150 or 175 rather than 200.

Eligibility years are as of 2014-15, so "2nd year" means she just completed her first. We consider only those players with at least two years of eligibility remaining. All years of stats I could find are included, but the projection depends only on '13-14.

Also included is a list of most-similar players for each prospect. These are comparisons in terms of style only, not in terms of equating one player to another, or saying that she will be as good as her comps. We simply took the CCAA stats and compared them to similar CIS players, to give an idea of the statistical profile she has by using known analogues to represent her style of play. We match players based on their CCAA stats, rather than their projected CIS stats, to minimize the number of assumptions made with these comparisons, and to keep the comps focused on the type of the player rather than her value to a CIS team (which is already expressed in the projected stats).

And finally, as always, remember this is not a substitute for recruiting insight. In most cases we know nothing about these players aside from a stat line and a roster bio, and are making no value judgement beyond that which is visible in a boxscore.

Just missing the cut this year: JenJen Abella (Mohawk), Joeressa Beals (MSVU), Carmen Deal (Olds), Torey Hill (NAIT), Ali Vlasman (Fanshawe), Riley Williams (Lambton).

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Megan Wood
5-11 forward, 4th year, Grant MacEwan University
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
752
16.4
9.7
1.3
0.6
1.1
21.0
12.4
50.3%
23.4%
32.1
2013-14
ACAC
3rd
673
20.1
6.1
0.9
0.2
0.8
28.7
8.7
60.5%
26.7%
46.9
2014-15
CIS
4th
505
13.3
4.6
0.6
0.2
0.5
21.1
7.3
53.2%
21.4%
23.0
Most similar: Kendall MacLeod, Laurelle Weigl, Anneka Bakker

That 2014 PER isn't a typo. It should go without saying that she led the conference in effective FG% (and many other things). Also keep in mind that Grant Mac will be joining Canada West for basketball next year, so the jump is presumably going to be easier for Wood than it would be for a comparable player changing teams.

Wood was on last year's list (always nice when you can re-use HTML code), when she was projected for a 15.5 PER in a Rookie of the Year season. This time around her projected PER is a very good 23.0 in what was an MVP-level and All-Canadian season. (To compare: Andria Carlyon went on to have much CIS success after having a PER of 34.6 in her second ACAC year. Wood has a 46.9 in her third.)



Hilary Goodine
5-11 forward, 4th year, St. Thomas University
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2011-12
ACAA
1st
332
7.0
4.3
0.9
0.0
1.2
17.7
11.0
41.7%
23.0%
23.1
2012-13
ACAA
2nd
524
9.1
5.6
0.8
0.3
1.3
19.5
12.0
38.1%
25.9%
21.6
2013-14
ACAA
3rd
460
12.8
3.9
1.1
0.1
1.5
22.2
6.8
46.5%
24.8%
31.0
2014-15
CIS
4th
377
7.1
4.9
0.6
0.0
0.8
15.0
10.5
41.4%
21.5%
17.2
Most similar: Nicole Wierks, Laura Mullins, Jenny Hobbs

Goodine led the national silver medallists and Atlantic champions in usage rate, and has more eligibility left than the other stars on the team (one of which has been profiled here before). She was sixth in the ACAA in PER, fifth in Offensive Rating, third in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate, and was named to the All-Conference first-team. St. Thomas, for a change, didn't completely dominate the conference this year, so the quality of competition their players face is less of an issue. A better shooting performance from Goodine this year as opposed to 2012-13 pushes her above the threshold for "CCAA player who can make the jump" -- her stats from last year would translate to just an 8.4 PER, not the 17.2 she's projected to put up now.



Kelly O'Hallahan
5-9 guard, 4th year, Grande Prairie Regional College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2011-12
ACAC
1st
509
12.4
6.0
1.6
0.2
2.2
19.5
9.4
46.9%
23.7%
27.4
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
714
20.2
9.2
2.2
0.5
3.1
23.8
10.9
45.3%
27.8%
33.9
2013-14
ACAC
3rd
699
18.1
10.5
2.6
0.5
4.0
23.9
13.8
44.8%
26.8%
41.8
2014-15
CIS
4th
524
11.2
7.7
1.5
0.4
2.4
17.2
11.8
38.7%
21.5%
19.5
Most similar: Kaylah Barrett, Amy Gough, Amy Ogidan

Another player on the list for two years in a row who will be playing for MacEwan next year: she will be transferring for their first CIS season. O'Hallahan was second to Jylisa Williams in CCAA (and ACAC) scoring last year and was second in ACAC scoring to Wood this year. Her two most recent seasons are very similar overall, with more rebounds contributing to her increase in PER from 33.9 to 41.8.



Jazlin Barker
5-3 guard, 2nd year, Holland College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2013-14
ACAA
1st
419
12.5
4.9
3.9
0.1
1.8
20.2
8.0
46.9%
25.3%
27.9
2014-15
CIS
2nd
314
5.7
2.7
1.7
0.1
0.8
14.4
6.8
39.8%
20.3%
20.2
Most similar: Bree Chaput, Kayla Klassen, Colleen Quinlan

Lower on this list not just because of her size but being 5-3 doesn't help. (Unlike in hockey, in basketball the nets aren't on the ground.) Still, she was the Atlantic rookie of the year and can clearly play some ball, with that PER projected to be higher than 20. I don't know how much to trust stats at this level, though with that in mind it's still worrying that she only got to the line, apparently, three times all year. Her assist rate, which you almost certainly cannot trust at this level, was second in the conference. At the risk of generalizing from a sample of one, if you're going to be a short player who succeeds at the next level up, you better have dominated the first level (which Barker did not, despite her very good season).



Stef Hrymak
5-4 guard, 2nd year, Mohawk College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2013-14
OCAA
1st
477
13.8
4.4
2.2
0.1
1.8
20.9
6.6
51.8%
21.0%
32.7
2014-15
CIS
2nd
358
6.7
2.5
1.0
0.0
0.9
15.0
5.6
44.6%
16.8%
16.1
Most similar: Brittany Szockyj, Jessica Steed, Kaitlyn Widsten

Hrymak made the All-Rookie team in the OCAA West division and was a second-team All-Star.

One of the peculiarities of CCAA basketball (and probably other sports, but I can only speak to hoops) is that in other parts of the country, Alberta especially, it's a stepping-stone to CIS, but in Ontario you will often see players go the other way. Case in point: three of the top 10 in OCAA PER played at the OUA level previously. Hrymak was 8th (or 6th, not counting the two players ahead of her). She was first (by any definition) in ORtg with a 117 on a team that averaged just 82. Her teammates, the Abella sisters, are both in this series now, one missing the cut this year and the other making the list in 2012.



Emma Lowry
5-8 guard, 3rd year, Lethbridge College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
ACAC
1st
596
7.3
5.3
1.9
0.1
2.2
11.7
8.5
47.6%
14.2%
21.2
2013-14
ACAC
2nd
657
13.2
6.7
2.8
0.5
3.3
17.7
9.0
46.9%
23.0%
30.1
2014-15
CIS
3rd
493
8.0
4.7
1.6
0.4
1.9
13.0
7.6
41.3%
18.4%
15.1
Most similar: Renata Adamczyk, Tamara Jarrett, Stephanie Kleysen

Lowry played at the Augustana campus of U of A in her first year, where she was an Academic All-Canadian, before transferring to Lethbridge in 2013-14. Her season got her on the All-Conference first team for the ACAC South. She was a key part of a strong defensive team, picking up a lot of steals and rebounding very well for a player of her size and position (she actually had one more rebound overall than Wood).
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