Sunday, March 18, 2012

The big news, of course, is the Dinos' upset of No. 1 Regina. Let's go through yesterday's games (and see just how badly that result screwed up the predictions):

  • UBC/McGill — predicted a 66-58 UBC win. Actual result: UBC 65, McGill 43. A pretty bad day for the Martlets, who made only 11 baskets (11/60, but 15/17 from the line to at least put them in the 40s). Odds are, you'll have a game like this in the first round, so it's not surprising they put this one in the earliest slot.

  • Saskatchewan/Ottawa — predicted a 69-61 Ottawa win. Actual result: Ottawa 73, Saskatchewan 70 (OT). This was, I'll admit, the only game I watched, and it looks like I chose right. Granted, it didn't look like the right choice at the half (Saskatchewan was up 16) but that turnover thing mattered: it seemed like every time Saskatchewan tried to score near the end, they couldn't bring the ball past halfcourt without having the ball stolen. In fact, they turned it over 24 times yesterday on an estimated 87 possessions (including three times in the last three minutes of the fourth quarter). That's 27%. That's bad.

    Do you think the fine people at the Star-Phoenix are aware there is a tournament going on? Presumably they are, because they have this on their website, and they've had previous (quite good) coverage of all things Huskies. Yet while "U of S at nationals" managed to fight off other contenders in the Top Newsworthy Events on a Saturday in Saskatoon category and find its way into the (online) paper, it did so at the expense of the "spell the name of the leading scorer correctly" rule that most human persons attempt to follow. The last 'y' is left off Hannah Sunley-Paisley's name twice. (Yes, I know why that is, because the boxscore has her listed that way, but someone vaguely familiar with CIS basketball might have realized that's not how you spell the player of the year's name.)

  • Acadia/Windsor — predicted a 73-65 Windsor win. Actual result: Windsor 94, Acadia 46. There aren't many teams who will lose by 59 points one week and then win by 48 two weeks later. This was pretty much over by the first quarter break. Everyone got into the game for the Lancers, and I mean literally everyone, because you can only dress 12 players.

    Acadia shot 0 of 13 on threes, so if they had merely shot their season average against Windsor then they would have scored about 15 more points. They'd still be 35 short, of course...

  • Regina/Calgary — predicted a 79-67 Regina win. Actual result: Calgary 75, Regina 66. The Cougars were within three in the second quarter, down 22-19, and then on their next 14 possessions ... well, before I tell you what happened, just remember this is a Cougars team that scored 104 points per 100 possessions during the regular season ... anyway, on their next 14 possessions before the half, they scored just two points, turning it over five times and grabbing only one of the eight rebounds on their own missed shots. And all of a sudden it was 41-22. Under normal offensive circumstances for Regina, that score would have been 41-36, but instead it added up to a first-round loss for the top-seeded team — the fourth time that's happened since 2006.

    The Dinos, who finished third in their own division, are now the only team remaining from that division. This is the first time in five years we'll have a Final 8 without Regina or Saskatchewan in the semifinals.


The updated tournament odds (based on updated rankings through yesterday's games) look like this:

Team
Then
Now
Change
Windsor
18.2%
44.5%
+26
UBC
20.1%
28.0%
+8
Ottawa
12.0%
18.2%
+6
Calgary
3.2%
9.3%
+6
McGill
2.1%
0.0%
-2
Saskatchewan
5.4%
0.0%
-5
Acadia
6.5%
0.0%
-6
Regina
32.3%
0.0%
-32

In other words, that Calgary win was worth a quarter of a Bronze Baby to Windsor. Not knowing what will happen today in their late semifinal, of course.


Speaking of the semifinals...


Semifinal 1: 5:00pm MT
SeedTeamW-LOddsRPISRSGame odds
2UBC25-3
28%
3rd
+15.8
57%
3Ottawa30-6
18%
4th
+13.9
43%

Previous meetings: none.

Ottawa's previous starting lineup: Jenna Gilbert (ranked 28th), Hannah Sunley-Paisley (3), Bess Lennox (34), Teddi Firmi (341), Kellie Ring (51)

UBC's previous starting lineup: Alex Vieweg (21), Kristen Hughes (137), Kris Young (9), Zara Huntley (20), Leigh Stansfield (96)

Prediction: UBC 67, Ottawa 63



Semifinal 2: 7:00pm MT
SeedTeamW-LOddsRPISRSGame odds
4Windsor32-4
45%
2nd
+19.9
74%
8Calgary20-13
9%
11th
+7.5
26%

Previous meetings: Windsor 76, Calgary 64 (Oct. 28)

Windsor's previous starting lineup: Iva Peklova (ranked 136th), Jessica Clémençon (4), Miah-Marie Langlois (6), Emily Abbott (287), Bojana Kovacevic (15)

Calgary's previous starting lineup: Jessica Franz (69), Megan Lang (97), Tamara Jarrett (59), Alex Cole (58), Jenna Kaye (7)

Prediction: Windsor 72, Calgary 58


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2 comments:

  1. Great job by SSN yesterday with the game!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Love the blog but...
    i) you must really see at least some of the games
    ii) props on calling out Star-Phoenix
    iii) maybe Regina-USask is overrated considering they deflate that many times when it counts
    iv) Miah Marie Langlois is clearly the best player in the county and it's not even close
    v)UBC-Gee-Gees a game for the ages coming up?

    Look forward to reading the next one

    ReplyDelete