1. Carleton Ravens
RPI / SRS: 1st / +27.1Odds of winning: 47.5%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Phillip Scrubb* (1, MVP), Tyson Hinz* (12), Willy Manigat** (28), Elliot Thompson** (30), Thomas Scrubb (58), Kevin Churchill (63), Cole Hobin (defensive player of the year)
How they got here: By driving 160 km/h on the Domination Highway
Bracketology consensus: 1st
Last year: OUA runner-up and No. 2 seed; 24.6% chance of winning; won tournament.
From the fall: "Therefore, the burning question that we have for this Raven squad is: what can’t they do?"
Notable Four Factors: Lead the country in shooting and in rebounding (on both teams' glass).
Quick outlook: Even money to win it all sounds about right. Favoured by maybe 14 against Acadia, though I'm not too sure on that.
2. Alberta Golden Bears
RPI / SRS: 3rd / +12.2Odds of winning: 17.7%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Jordan Baker* (5), Daniel Ferguson** (11)
How they got here: A pair of double-digit wins over last year's No. 1 seed (UBC), a semifinal win over this year's conference No. 1 (Saskatchewan) and a 72-71 squeaker over Fraser Valley in the CW final.
Bracketology consensus: 2nd
Last year: Did not qualify.
From the fall: "With last year's trip to the [Canada West] final four under their belts and another year to establish their skills, Alberta has to be considered one of the elite teams in the country this year."
Notable Four Factors: Can get into foul trouble.
Quick outlook: Have a great chance to be playing for a championship, but maybe not a good chance of winning it. Favoured by 20 against Ryerson.
6. St. Francis Xavier X-Men
RPI / SRS: 4th / +9.6Odds of winning: 9.7%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Terry Thomas* (8), Jeremy Dunn** (75)
How they got here: Finished first in AUS, then won their semifinal against CBU to advance. Lost to Acadia in AUS final.
Bracketology consensus: 6th, but we were all over the place on them.
Last year: Did not qualify. Lost AUS semifinal.
From the fall: "[They'll] be around in the top-10 all year."
Notable Four Factors: Shoot only 47.5% (effective field-goal percentage) and don't get to the line as much as others.
Quick outlook: A six seed is third-most likely to win? Goes to Kevin Garbuio's (and others') point about the seedings. 7-point favourites on Friday.
5. Fraser Valley Cascades
RPI / SRS: 6th / +8.0Odds of winning: 7.7%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Joel Friesen* (29), Kyle Grewal (42), Samuel Freeman (65), Jasper Moedt (87)
How they got here: Needed three games to eliminate Lethbridge, then beat UVic at the last second to advance to first Canada West final in school's history
Bracketology consensus: 4th
Last year: Did not qualify. First Final 8.
From the fall: "The step up from mediocrity to contention isn't easy out West, with a whole lot of teams to go over before reaching the top of the mountain. But that first step always needs to be taken, and the Cascades have a good chance to do it this year."
Notable Four Factors: Shoot only 47.5% (effective field-goal percentage) and don't get to the line as much as others.
Quick outlook: Very slight favourites against the Thunderwolves, but probably need to cheer for Acadia to advance beyond that.
3. Concordia Stingers
RPI / SRS: 8th / +5.4Odds of winning: 6.4%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Evens Laroche* (70, MVP), Kyle Desmarais** (86), John Dore (coach of the year)
How they got here: 66-65 win over Laval in RSEQ semifinal, 77-47 over UQAM in final
Bracketology consensus: 5th
Last year: RSEQ champion and No. 7 seed; 3.5% chance of winning, lost 73-66 to Carleton in quarterfinals
From the fall: "They have Kyle Desmarais and it's the QUBL. They'll win."
Notable Four Factors: Three of the worst seven shooting teams in CIS are in RSEQ, and the Stingers were one of those three; they also turned it over quite a bit given their competition.
Quick outlook: 7-point underdogs on Friday. Their favourable draw gives them a better or similar chance to all the teams on Carleton's side of the draw, but an "upset" looms with the X-Men.
4. Lakehead GGOD[T]s
RPI / SRS: 5th / +11.9Odds of winning: 5.8%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Venzal Russell* (43, MVP), Ryan Thomson (46), Greg Carter** (47, defensive player of the year), Benjamin Johnson** (83), Scott Morrison (coach of the year)
How they got here: Well...
Bracketology consensus: 3rd or 6th, or not at all.
Last year: OUA champion and No. 4 seed; 8.0% chance of winning, lost 82-74 to silver medallist TWU in quarterfinals.
From the fall: "The Thunderwolves are a team built to win the OUA West and with so many seniors likely to graduate after this year, anything less than a division championship and a Wilson Cup appearance will be seen as not good enough."
Notable Four Factors: Like the X-Men, they shoot relatively often but don't draw fouls as much.
Quick outlook: Their shooting may suffer without the injured Thomson ("nowhere to be seen on Wednesday") but Lakehead-UFV looks to be the closest quarterfinal of the tournament.
8. Acadia Axemen
RPI / SRS: 13th / +5.9Odds of winning: 3.9%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Owen Klassen* (34, defensive player of the year), Anthony Sears** (66), Sean Stoqua (68), Anthony Ashe (92)
How they got here: AUS champions
Bracketology consensus: 8th
Last year: No. 8 seed; 1.1% chance of winning; lost quarterfinal to UBC 96-77
Notable Four Factors: Second-best shooting team at this tournament, and above-average defensively in that area as well; not the biggest rebounding team, though, which is going to hurt them on Friday greatly.
Quick outlook: Well, you can guess.
7. Ryerson Rams
RPI / SRS: 15th / +0.2Odds of winning: 1.2%
Top-100 players and award-winners: Jahmal Jones* (10), Jordon Gauthier** (24), Aaron Best (72)
How they got here: Finished second in OUA East and took apart Lakehead in the OUA crossover semifinal
Bracketology consensus: 7th
Last year: Did not qualify. First Final 8 since 1999, and only their second ever.
From the fall: "If the youth movement continues to gain experience for coach Roy Rana, Ryerson could be on its way up again."
Notable Four Factors: Allowed opponents (most of whom were OUA East teams) to shoot an effective 49%, nearly three points higher than anyone else here and nearly six higher than their first-round opponents
Quick outlook: Will need to overcome another double-digit point spread to advance.
0 comments:
Post a Comment