Calculated Reactions: basketball tournament odds and opening-game point spreads

A lack of time precludes us from providing more detailed previews of the various conference championships, aside from Kevin Garbuio's work on the men's and women's AUS tournaments, but what we can offer up in advance of this weekend's games is a list, mostly for fun, of the various tournament odds.

All calculations are based on a combination of our RPI and SRS rankings (men's, women's). Host teams are given the customary home-court advantage in their winning percentages. Teams are listed in order of how likely they are to win, with their seeds (if relevant) included as well.

Possible upsets include the X-Women in the 4/5 game, the Vikes over UFV, and perhaps a home loss by the Martlets.


And as always: please, no wagering.

AUS (men)
1. St. F-X, 49.7%
2. Acadia, 26.1%
3. UPEI, 11.0%
4. Cape Breton 6.5%
6. SMU, 3.5%
5. Dalhousie, 3.2%

First-round point spreads:
CBU by 5.5 over Dal
UPEI by 10.5 over SMU


AUS (women)
1. Acadia, 45.5%
2. Cape Breton, 34.6%
3. SMU, 8.3%
5. St. F-X, 5.1% (host)
4. Memorial, 4.4%
6. Dalhousie, 2.1%

First-round point spreads:
SMU by 10.5 over Dal
Too close to call with St. F-X vs. Memorial


RSEQ (men)
Concordia, 72.4% (home)
UQAM, 27.6%

Concordia by 15.5


RSEQ (women)
McGill, 58.1% (home)
Concordia, 41.9%

McGill by 3.5


OUA (men)
1E. Carleton, 49.1%
1W. Lakehead, 29.3%
2W. McMaster, 16.0%
2E. Ryerson, 5.5%

Semifinal point spreads:
Carleton by 10 over McMaster
Lakehead by 16 over Ryerson


OUA (women)
1W. Windsor, 46.4%
1E. Ottawa, 30.3% (host)
2E. Carleton, 15.2%
2W. Brock, 8.3%

Semifinal point spreads:
Ottawa by 8 over Brock
Windsor by 8.5 over Carleton


Canada West (men)
1. Saskatchewan, 50.2% (host)
4. Alberta, 21.7%
3. UFV, 14.9%
2. Victoria, 13.2%

Semifinal point spreads:
Too close to call for UVic-UFV
Saskatchewan by 4 over Alberta


Canada West (women)
1. Regina, 59.6% (host)
2. UBC, 19.1%
3. Saskatchewan, 12.5%
4. UFV, 8.8%

Semifinal point spreads:
Regina by 12 over UFV
UBC by 3.5 over Saskatchewan