Basketball: How the OUA season could play out

Inspired somewhat by Ken Pomeroy's tournament odds — everything I do is inspired somewhat by something Ken Pomeroy did — here are the odds of each OUA team finishing the regular season in each playoff spot. Game results as of Wed Nov 27 are included and the rest are simulated. (For those who are interested in the details, the simulations are based on our team rankings and the log5 method, with the season being simulated thousands of times to smooth out the outliers.)


WOMEN


West      1    2    3    4    5    6   Elim
 1 WSR  99.2   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
 9 UWO   0.6  64.2  21.3   9.8   4.0   0.0   0.1
11 MAC   0.1  12.7  28.3  31.0  27.3   0.6   0.0
17 WLU   0.0   9.7  21.5  29.2  38.6   0.9   0.1
 7 BRO   0.0  12.6  28.9  29.7  27.6   1.1   0.1
36 LAK   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.5  44.1  54.3
24 GUE   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0  52.2  46.7
41 WAT   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.1  98.9

Brock's 5-4 in league games, losing all four games by no more than four points or in OT (or both). That is a pretty brutal and unlucky start to the season, if I may say so. As a result their chances of finishing higher in the OUA West are reduced, even if they are still ranked highly.

Western's win Wednesday night helped them get a leg up on the others here, but they were already pretty high by virtue of their high ranking and 7-1 record against the East (Mac went 6-2, Brock 5-3, and Laurier's ranked a bit lower).

Ontario will have three spots at the Final 8 this year, so finishing in a spot to avoid Windsor for as long as possible in the playoffs is key for any OUA West team.



East      1    2    3    4    5    6   Elim
10 OTT  79.8  15.9   4.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
14 CAR  13.3  54.1  31.1   1.3   0.1   0.0   0.1
19 QUE   6.9  29.6  60.5   2.8   0.2   0.0   0.0
37 RYE   0.0   0.3   2.6  44.3  33.5  14.5   4.8
27 TOR   0.0   0.1   1.3  37.8  33.4  18.5   8.9
35 YOR   0.0   0.0   0.2   9.5  21.3  40.5  28.5
40 LAU   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.3  11.6  26.5  57.5
45 ALG   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 100.0

The East is a little more competitive at the top, as you'd expect with the half of the conference that doesn't have Windsor. Three teams have a reasonable chance at the No. 1 seed, with Saturday's game having a lot of say in that outcome. Should Ottawa win at Carleton, they'll pretty much have it clinched (about a 90% chance); if they lose, their chances drop to around 55%. Of course they are exceedingly likely to grab a high seed either way.


MEN


West      1    2    3    4    5    6   Elim
 6 WSR  67.7  27.9   4.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1
10 MAC  30.8  58.8   9.3   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
15 WLU   1.3  12.1  66.9  14.7   4.6   0.3   0.1
23 LAK   0.1   0.8  13.1  47.4  26.0   9.6   3.0
28 GUE   0.0   0.3   5.5  26.4  43.9  17.0   6.9
40 UWO   0.0   0.0   0.5   8.0  15.5  41.5  34.5
39 BRO   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.4   7.3  22.8  68.2
42 WAT   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0   2.7   8.8  87.4


East      1    2    3    4    5    6   Elim
 1 CAR  98.5   1.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
 2 OTT   1.3  88.1   9.8   0.7   0.0   0.0   0.1
 5 RYE   0.1   9.6  74.6  13.8   1.7   0.1   0.1
11 LAU   0.0   0.8  12.7  70.7  11.9   3.8   0.1
19 YOR   0.0   0.0   1.5   8.7  49.5  36.4   3.9
20 QUE   0.0   0.0   1.3   6.0  35.7  50.6   6.4
35 TOR   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.9  92.1
44 ALG   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.1  97.7

The last time both Warriors teams made the playoffs was 2004-05, coincidentally* right before I started my first year there. Maybe it's time for them to take down the world's tiniest picture of the Queen. She can't be too pleased with what she's been seeing.

(* Or not?...)

For those wondering how the point-differential-in-home-and-home-games tiebreaker is handled...well, it isn't. Any two (or more) teams with equal head-to-head records have their ties broken randomly. It is difficult to predict exactly what the score will be in any game, so it's not that far off to assume it's equally likely to go either way, especially if you assume the teams are close enough in quality to be tied in the first place. But the pure win-loss tiebreakers are themselves incorporated here, so the Western women are up 1-0 on Brock already and it shows up in their odds to some degree.

The effort needled to handle the varying conference tiebreakers correctly is why this is just OUA teams for now. Other conferences will follow, time permitting.
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