Football: OUA playoff scenarios, odds, and possibilities

Most of the playoff teams have been determined in the OUA; only a small battle remains between Windsor and Toronto, but that is heavily tilted the Lancers' way. We also know who the top three teams will be: Western, Queen's/Guelph winner, Queen's/Guelph loser. That game alone can affect the playoff race considerably but it's not the only one with potential implications.

The fourth through sixth spots are still undetermined, and could be any of three or four teams. Toronto, should they qualify for the playoffs, will be 5th, which means the other three — McMaster, Ottawa, Windsor; all tied at 4-3 right now — have a home game on the line today.

There can't be a three-way tie with these teams, and the Marauders hold the tiebreakers over both, assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens. (They can sew up a point-differential tiebreaker over Windsor by beating Carleton by about 25 points, which should be simple enough to achieve.) So that home game is Mac's to lose.

Just in time for the games today, here are the odds for all four teams and each playoff position:

Team	4th	5th	6th	Out
MAC	73%	23%	4%	---
OTT	17%	45%	38%	---
WSR	10%	27%	58%	5%
TOR	---	5%	---	95%