Calculated Reactions: Quarterback passing rankings, 2009 and 2010

Calculated Reactions is a new, hopefully-recurring feature that takes an hopefully-interesting look at CIS statistics, with the goal of taking the numbers and giving them greater meaning.

Longtime readers will remember that, every year, we've ranked quarterbacks ('05-07, '08, '09).

Usually, we rank by adjusted net yards per attempt, with adjustments for outliers in completion percentage and comparing each QB to his conference average in that year. Last time out we hit a bit of a snag when the stats were incomplete on the then-new CIS website.

Thankfully, I recently noticed that they've posted 2009-10 stats (in part), including sack yardage--the very stat we were missing.

So we can now publish last year's rankings along with this year's, meaning we have six years of QB rankings to contemplate.

Once again I emphasize that this only considers passing plays and does not give QBs credit if their receivers or O-line are subpar. The league average is 100, so 150 means an extra 50 adjusted yards gained for every 100 gained by the average quarterback in that player's conference. Anyone with 100 attempts or more is included (regular season only).

And, as always, this is a rather basic measure. Quality of teammates, quality of opposition, pressure and time on a QB in the pocket, and the game conditions all affect these stats.

Let's hit rewind for a bit and check out the 2009 leaders:

Leaders in adjusted net yards per attempt (conference average per 100), 2009
8CreightonSaint Mary's219114

Eric Glavic won the Hec Crighton last year, and his No. 1 ranking here suggests was the best QB among the nominees.

2009 was also one of the few years where U of T or York quarterbacks weren't in last place. Nick Coutu was still 22nd (not shown), but Toronto's Jansen Shrubb ended up 7th, ahead of Brad Sinopoli! Not bad for someone who didn't make our preview that year.

Also worth pointing out: Justin Dunk's 2009 combines with his 2008, 2006, and 2005 seasons for four years (out of five, obviously) with above-average passing numbers, a noteworthy accomplishment even if he didn't reach the heights of a Brannagan or a Groulx.

Leaders in adjusted net yards per attempt (conference average per 100), 2010
1K QuinlanMcMaster209159
2C RossettiGuelph170150
3M BrownSaint Mary's165135
4B SinopoliOttawa301134
5J ShoirySherbrooke254132
6M MuellerRegina278131
7E DzwilewskiCalgary103130
8B Prud'HommeLaval148130
9L NixonSaskatchewan256129
10K WilliamsManitoba216116

The interceptions hurt Sinopoli here, but only relative to other top QBs (he really didn't throw that many). Chris Rossetti apparently only had two picks, so he's not hurt by the interception, and he makes it into second place behind a great year from Kyle Quinlan and the Mac offence.

SMU's QBs have been in the top 10 five of the last six years: Micah Brown (3rd in '10), Jack Creighton (8th in '09), Eric Glavic (3rd in '07), and Billy Robinson (7th in '06, 6th in '05). Given that there are four names there, I'm going to assume there's a built-in advantage to playing for the east Huskies. Not that those names aren't great, but when you're compared against other AUS QBs...well, you're probably going to get an inflated ranking to some extent.


And, as hinted above, we can also update our list of top passing seasons from the last six years:

Top 15 passing seasons from 2005 to 2010
176Joshua SacobieOttawa2007
175Adam ArchibaldMcMaster2007
167Benoît GroulxLaval2005
167John MakieManitoba2006
162Michael FauldsWestern2005
159Kyle QuinlanMcMaster2010
157Erik GlavicSMU2007
155Benoît GroulxLaval2006
154Dan BrannaganQueen's2007
153Dan LumleyWindsor2006
152Ryan PyearLaurier2005
150Benoît GroulxLaval2008
150Eric GlavicCalgary2009
150Chris RossettiGuelph2010
149Steven BilanSaskatchewan2005

Anything near or above 150 is certainly an outstanding season. Only Glavic and Benoît Groulx are repeat members of the club, so there are 12 different names on the list, or two new players added each year. That seems about right. Next year, we could see Sinopoli or Marc Mueller on this list--both of whom, I believe, have at least a year left to play.

Looking at the leaders since 2005 makes me wonder: is it possible that, in recent years, CIS football has developed parity-like behaviour to the point where a Sacobie or an Archibald can't cut up defences at 175% the rate of everyone else? Quinlan's 2010 is the only season since 2007 to come in above 150.
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1 comment:

  1. "is it possible that, in recent years, CIS football has developed parity-like behaviour to the point where a Sacobie or an Archibald can't cut up defences at 175% the rate of everyone else?"

    Maybe CIS outside the OUA, OK.

    Kyle Quinlan is an impressive player but that he could put up those numbers says more about OUA than it does about Mac or KQ.