The Road To Halifax Stops At Carleton: On Seedings Eve

The seeding is a total mess and you ought to love it.

Ryerson completed a capital double, defeating Carleton for the Wilson Cup thanks to Manny Diressa going off for 24 points in the second half and, speaking of dynamic dyads, Adam Voll and Keevon Small combining for nine blocked shots. History does not play the games in the present, of course. Ryerson with floor leaders Diressa, Adika Peter-McNeilly and Juwon Grannum will go into the Final 8 with much more shared experienced with the tournament and what's involved with being a No. 1 seed.

Meantime, Carleton will get a matinee game in the quarter-final for the fourth consecutive year, since Dalhousie is probably in the 4 vs. 5 game and the host Tigers will play in the evening session. Clearly Carleton doesn't mind the extra recovery period. The Ravens have also won the national championship the last five times (2006, '07, '11, '14 and '16) that it was not OUA playoff champion.
The task at hand isn't predictions, though, it's seeding.
That is proving tough enough after the unfolding carnage of these conference playoffs. Young Henry and Dulson have a noble stab at it (and Mark Wacyk explains why UBC getting the wild card sets a bad precedent):

That could play, apart from the debate about the at-large berth. It is possible the seeding committee could decide that while UBC is first in five of the first nine criteria, losing in the Canada West quarter-final two in a row at home to Manitoba, which garnered no Top 10 support all season, is a deal-breaker. In that case, though, Calgary would seem to be the next team up based on the below interpretation. The Dinos are only first in one category, but are no lower than tied for third in every other one. Losing to Manitoba in the playoffs is also less abject since it was a one-game playoff and not a best-of-three series.

Reg-sea.SOSTTN-CTop 10A800A650A500B500Playoffs*Total
Brock 415442335233

With that out of the way, a last stab before the true experts get it right. It's looking like everyone should hope that Saint Mary's defeats Dalhousie in the AUS final; then they can get both into the top 6. Manitoba and the at-large recipient would then get bumped into the 7 and 8 seeds.

  1. Ryerson (OUA champion). Fine, fine team. 
  2. Carleton (OUA auto-berth). Eddie Ekiyor had an intentional foul during the stretch run of the fourth quarter of the Wilson Cup that blemished going for 22-12-3 across 29 minutes against a top-3 team. Watch that get avenged next weekend.
  3. McGill (RSEQ champion). Canada West usually gets the highest seed of anyone not from the centre of the universe. However, now that it might become the three-bid league, McGill likely has to move up to avoid a same-conference matchup.

    McGill rates better than or even with Alberta and Dalhousie on Simple Ranking System (taken before the playoffs), regular-season conference record, non-conference record and it has been higher in the Top 10 voting.

    Alberta is seventh nationally in full-season RPI, with Dalhousie ninth and McGill 11th. Say whatever you want about the quality of the RSEQ, but McGill grades out well according to the rules in place. 
  4. Alberta (Canada West champion). Shot an effective 77 per cent during the second half of the CW final, with Brody Clarke going for 29 and 12 on 10-of-14 from the floor.
  5. Dalhousie (AUS champion). Play Saint Mary's on Sunday in an all-Halifax AUS final.  
  6. Calgary (at large). Reasonable place to put the No. 5-ranked team in Canada, forgiving them their peccadillo that was the two-point defeat against Manitoba. Yes, Manitoba won the game that mattered, but only by a bucket. 
  7. Saint Mary's (de facto host). Marquis Clayton went for 22 points total and the Huskies limited UNB to two baskets during a pull-away third quarter in the AUS semifinal. Will Javon Masters ever get to a Final 8?
  8. Manitoba (Canada West auto-berth). Shout-out to Tony House, who's organized Canada Topflight Academy in Ottawa, since he's a former Bisons guard. 
In the event Saint Mary's wins the AUS everything revises quite easily:
  1. Ryerson
  2. Carleton
  3. Alberta
  4. McGill
  5. Saint Mary's
  6. Dalhousie
  7. at-large team (Calgary, Brock or UBC)
  8. Manitoba

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