Bronze Baby Bracketlogy: Putting the wild card before the horse edition

Essentially, 10 teams extant in OUA and Canada West, plus Laval and long, long shot McGill are in the at-large berth conversation.

One need not be reminded of Article 4.2.3 -- remember the two weeks we spent at U Sports Playing Regulations Fantasy Camp? -- and knows the four elements that make up the selection criteria for an at-large berth.

After Saturday's games, here's how those 10 teams stack up in each category, sorted by average rank. The third criteria is how many wins a team was short of qualifying, and of course we don't know that yet:


W-LRPIWShSRSAvg. Rank
Laval31n/a11.67
Regina23n/a22.33
McMaster14n/a32.67
Carleton52n/a43.67
Queen's65n/a65.67
Winnipeg49n/a76.67
Windsor78n/a56.67
Sask.97n/a88
McGill106n/a98.33
Alberta810n/a108.67

This shows who the eventual third-place team in OUA has to hope like hell doesn't end up third in Canada West and vice-versa. And they have to hope Laval doesn't faceplant in the RSEQ Final 4. The Rouge et Or will go in stress-tested; they lost an overtime game against McGill in their reg-season finale and needed a Claudia Emond triple with 2.2 seconds left to defeat UQAM in their penultimate game.


Belatedly (busy week), here's the working bracket:

  1. Laval (RSEQ champion). Pro tip: Play all four quarters the way they played the fourth in that last-second win against UQAM last Friday. In the long run, being stress-tested by a couple one-possession games before the playoffs is good for a team's foul.
  2. Regina (Canada West champion). Beat Winnipeg already, now do so on  a neutral floor.
  3. Carleton (OUA champion). They have not lost in a long, long time and will have the motivation to win the program's first OUA women's title.
  4. Queen's (OUA auto-bid). Handled Windsor by double digits on the road in the regular season and they're very tough at home. 
  5. Alberta (Canada West auto-bid). Won on the Huskies floor in the regular season and eminently capable of replicating that effort. Judging from the StarPhoenix, the subtext for Saskatchewan being this far is that they have overachieved in a post-peak period. From that, I'll extrapolate that Alberta doesn't a have a "mental out."
  6. New Brunswick (AUS champion). Sentimental favourite on the basis of a strong Twitter game.

    After five- and seven-point defeats against Saint Mary's in the regular season, the third time could be the charm next Sunday.
    Saint Mary's has finished strongly to get first place in the AUS regular season. 
  7. McMaster (at large). All along, I've been treating that 26-point loss McMaster had at Carleton on Dec. 3 as sacrosanct. It was also almost three months ago.
  8. Victoria (host). Could be very competitive against Laval.
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