Comments on The CIS Blog: Men's Basketball: Top 10: Top 6 stay put, Carleton...

TWU is streaking! I don't expect to see my Spa...

2012-01-25T01:27:20.916-05:00

TWU is streaking! I don't expect to see my Spartans in the top 10 rankings before playoffs, but I like their chances against TRU and UFV and I think they could make some unexpected noise in the playoffs and maybe even head back to the CW Final 4.

It's not that complicated to figure out why RP...

2012-01-24T22:08:21.610-05:00

It's not that complicated to figure out why RPI isn't giving Carleton enough credit, really -- it all comes down to that margin-of-victory thing.

One of the biggest reasons people hate the NCAA college football rankings is that those are explicitly designed to ignore margin of victory, something that tells you much more about a team than just "did they win or not?" For that reason, SRS is, in my experience, usually better at predicting how something like the Final 8 will go (as long as you have enough interconference games to make it meaningful).

While the SRS seems to be a closer reflection of r...

2012-01-24T21:56:29.012-05:00

While the SRS seems to be a closer reflection of reality, and while I do believe that the gap between Carleton and TROC is as big as it has ever been in the past 10 years, I can see faults in it as well. However, at least it is far more dependent on what teams accomplish as opposed to what their opponents (+1 once removed) do.

As far as it being accurate at the end of the season; that's debatable, I suppose. While a larger selection of games certainly provides more data, I firmly believe there is a good reason that the NCAA does not rely on this as their sole factor in choosing the March Madness field. It was designed as a way to gauge strength of schedule in relation to a team's record but was not designed as a ranking system to stand on its own. It's used in conjunction with team-generated stats like winning pctg., winning margin, record home vs road, etc. to help ensure that at-large teams aren't simply loading up on patsies for the non-conference portion of their schedule.

Understand your points ROPSSAA - it's kind of ...

2012-01-24T21:50:08.549-05:00

Understand your points ROPSSAA - it's kind of silly for Carleton not to be #1, and it's not a perfect formula. But having worked with the RPI before, it's been pretty accurate as the season goes on. Let's see what it says at the end of the regular season. For now, let the SRS tide you over.

I'll take the bait. Sure it rankles but now ...

2012-01-24T20:12:07.845-05:00

I'll take the bait.

Sure it rankles but now that Carleton has dropped to five and a Lakehead team that is first in the CIS' best division has dropped to 10, I'm now more inclined to simply dismiss it outright as a useless stat to use in ranking CIS basketball.

Maybe it's the small number of teams compared to the NCAA; the relatively low number of non-conference games (Before Rob reminds me of the 107 non-conference games, I'll point out that this is 16% of all the games played by CIS teams; far lower than the 35-50% played by NCAA teams); or simply the fact that a team does better being the best of a mediocre bunch in a mediocre division with parity. Heck even in the NCAA where the stat has a bit more meaning, it is down the list of criteria for choosing and ranking NCAA tournament-bound teams.

Regardless, the ranking now has no bearing in reality and the large gap between the RPI rankings and the common sense of the coaches voting and most CIS fans on the various discussion boards reflects this.

Count me with Brian. Carleton plays like the best team in the country; has the best record in the country; has the most national team players; has the most accomplished coach; has the deepest bench; and has the best set of stats that are directly within their control. Heck, they even have the best winning pctg. against top ten teams and are tied for the most total wins against them. So if it looks like a #1 team and plays like a #1 team; it's the #1 team. Lakehead is the only team to give them any sort of challenge and that, along with the coaches ranking and their deep division, makes them the #2 team.