For the third year in a row, it's time to check out the college players whose CCAA performance suggests CIS success.

**

First, the necessary background and explanation. To identify these prospects, we take 2012-13 CCAA stats and translate them to the CIS level based on the many players from past years who have played CCAA one year and CIS the next. Currently for women's basketball, we can translate ACAC (Alberta), OCAA (Ontario), and ACAA (Atlantic) stats.

Every category — from shooting percentages to rebounds to steals to percentage of shots taken that are three-pointers to usage rate — is projected based on historical averages for players going from one level to the next in consecutive years. We now have the equivalent of about 9,500 minutes from players who have gone from CCAA to CIS (or the reverse). All these CCAA-to-CIS players are the basis for our assumptions about the relative level of the two leagues: for illustration purposes only, if turnovers per 40 minutes tends to rise 15% among these players on average, that's the translation we apply to everyone's college stats. Obviously there are several factors we're not accounting for, but this does serve as a handy way to identify the standouts among hundreds of CCAA players across the country, and to (for lack of a better word) ignore those whose overall game might not translate to the CIS level.

Minutes played are projected, though projecting playing time is generally an even more foolish thing to do than projecting rate stats, and so those numbers should not be taken seriously. The per-game statistics assume each player appears in 20 games; the projected season stats are therefore simply divided by 20 for everyone. Some schools had impossibly low numbers of minutes played, which meant we had to adjust the minutes up for everyone to match how many games that team played — MP numbers are noted with * where adjusted.

Eligibility years are as of 2013-14, so "2nd year" means she just completed her first. We consider only those players with at least two years of eligibility remaining. All years of stats I could find are included, but the projection depends only on '12-13.

New this year is a list of most-similar players to each prospect. These are comparisons in terms of style only, not in terms of equating one player to another, or saying that she will be as good as her comps. We simply took the CCAA stats and compared them to similar CIS players, to give an idea of the statistical profile she has by using known analogues to represent her style of play. We match players based on their CCAA stats, rather than their projected CIS stats, to minimize the number of assumptions made with these comparisons, and to keep the comps focused on the type of the player rather than her value to a CIS team (which is already expressed in the stats).

And finally, as always, remember this is not a substitute for recruiting insight. In most (all?) cases we know nothing about these players aside from a stat line and a roster bio, and are making no value judgement beyond that which is visible in a boxscore.

**

Jylisa Williams
5-8 guard, 4th year, Olds College (previously with Georgia State University)
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2008-09
NCAA
1st
946
10.5
4.6
2.0
0.1
2.4
13.3
5.9
36.8%
22.5%
n/a
2009-10
NCAA
2nd
249
7.7
2.8
1.8
0.1
1.2
13.7
5.0
44.8%
20.5%
n/a
2012-13
ACAC
3rd
828*
26.4
8.8
3.6
0.2
4.5
35.7
11.9
48.7%
34.5%
54.8
2013-14
CIS
4th
646
20.1
7.6
2.4
0.3
3.8
24.8
9.3
46.3%
22.4%
31.9
Most similar: Lindsay DeGroot, Renata Adamczyk, Katie Miyazaki

Surprise, surprise — the list begins with the CCAA player of the year. You don't see too many Georgia State transfers in Olds, Alberta. On second thought you don't see many people at all in Olds, Alberta.

Her projection doesn't take her D-1 past into account, and yet it still gives her the kind of numbers you see out of a first-team All-Canadian. A PER of 31.9 would have been in the top 10 in the country this past year, and represents the highest projection we've seen out of any player in the three years we've been doing this series.

Williams is very likely to transfer somewhere, so I should point out that her projected numbers (notably PER and usage rate) assume she is placed on an average CIS team and plays a reduced role relative to what she had at Olds, as that is typically what happens with a CCAA transfer. However, the typical transfer is not a D-1 player who came up here and dominated the league as thoroughly as she did, and so I expect her to play a larger part with whatever team she chooses to join.

(If it wasn't obvious from the joke above, this is the first time I've ever even heard of Olds. The town or the college.)



Kelsey Lund
6-0 forward, 3rd year, University of Alberta - Augustana
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2011-12
ACAC
1st
424*
14.3
8.5
0.4
0.8
1.1
31.0
18.5
46.0%
31.9%
39.0
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
484*
14.9
8.3
0.4
1.2
1.0
29.5
16.4
50.7%
30.2%
41.6
2013-14
CIS
3rd
378
9.8
6.2
0.2
1.1
0.8
20.6
13.0
48.6%
19.6%
22.0
Most similar: Hannah Sunley-Paisley, Brittany Read

Lund provides a nice object lesson in what happens when your teammates shoot better: namely, that you don't have to take as many bad shots. In 2011-12, her teammates shot about 36%, and the only player who took more shots than Lund was lower than that. In 2012-13, her teammates shot 38% (about a point and a half per game better overall), with the other high-volume shooters at 45% and 41%. Quite the difference.

Other accomplishments of Lund's this year in the ACAC: second-highest PER, fourth-highest offensive rating (i.e., points produced per possession), fifth-best true shooting percentage, highest offensive rebound percentage, second-highest defensive rebound percentage ... need I continue?

Overall, she was probably more valuable to Augustana than she was last year (when she was also on this list), which is frankly amazing. I think her CIS comps are particularly good as well — though, again, this isn't to say she's as good as Read or Sunley-Paisley (would that we all could be). Just that they have similar profiles.



Melanie Hogue
Forward, 3rd year, Olds College (previously with Holland College)
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2010-11
ACAA
1st
413
12.1
12.3
0.7
0.8
1.7
22.2
22.7
40.7%
15.1%
n/a
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
413*
8.2
11.5
0.7
1.2
1.4
14.2
20.0
40.8%
17.4%
26.1
2013-14
CIS
3rd
378
4.0
6.4
0.3
0.9
0.8
8.5
13.4
39.3%
11.3%
14.5
Most similar: Natalie Janssens, Stephanie Toxopeus, Hailey Milligan

No wonder Olds did so well this year... Hogue is merely the second-most notable transfer they had. We identified her as someone who could play back in the inaugural piece in this series, in May of 2011. At that time I said she was a good candidate for what used to be called a draft-and-follow in baseball terms: give her a year to develop and see what happens. The following year she left Holland College, however, and then turned up in everybody's favourite Alberta town of population 8,000.

Huge caveats abound with her projection: since it is based on the year she shared the court with Jylisa Williams, her usage rate is very low. She'd probably take many more shots on a "regular" team. Though not if she's going to shoot under 40%.



Wendy Margetts
5-11 forward, 2nd year, University of King's College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
ACAA
1st
602
12.8
10.5
1.7
0.5
2.0
18.7
15.3
48.6%
21.4%
30.9
2013-14
CIS
2nd
470
7.8
7.1
0.9
0.4
1.3
13.2
12.1
46.5%
13.9%
16.8
Most similar: Laurie Girdwood, Lindsay Druery, Kayla Dykstra

To be clear, that would be the King's located in Halifax, not the one in London or Edmonton. (They're our version of Miami and Miami of Ohio, I guess.)

Margetts, originally from Sarnia, Ont., committed to McMaster for the 2011-12 season but did not play. She ended up down east, and accomplished a very difficult task: appearing near the top of league leaderboards despite not playing for St. Thomas. (This link, or this one, should explain that reference.)

Posts generally have a better chance at making the jump to CIS, which is partially why you see Margetts, Hogue, and Lund on this list. Averaging a double-double doesn't hurt either.



Haeven Durrant
5-8 forward, 2nd year, Sheridan College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
OCAA
1st
625
18.7
12.7
0.9
0.8
2.7
21.6
14.6
38.6%
27.5%
35.8
2013-14
CIS
2nd
488
9.3
7.0
0.4
0.6
1.5
15.2
11.5
36.9%
17.9%
16.3
Most similar: Nicki Schutz, Anna von Maltzahn

Not a lot to say here, mostly because I don't know much about her. Durrant was third in the Ontario league in scoring, taking a lot of shots and complementing that with grabbing a lot of boards, and a very low turnover rate. Not a high-percentage shooter, but it's hard to be when your team shoots an effective 33%, and doesn't outscore its opponents.



Jessica Cetoute
6-1 forward, 2nd year, St. Lawrence College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
OCAA
1st
660
16.2
14.5
1.0
1.3
3.1
17.6
15.8
42.8%
24.3%
31.6
2013-14
CIS
2nd
514
7.9
8.0
0.4
0.9
1.7
12.3
12.5
41.0%
15.8%
14.1
Most similar: Sarah Wierks, Iva Peklovà, Marie-Michelle Genois

The OCAA rookie of the year, Cetoute was part of a resurgence at St. Lawrence: one year after a winless season, they fell five points short of a conference bronze medal. (Host Humber used 13 players in that game to their eight, which hardly seems fair ... or within FIBA rules.)

Despite all those rebounds, she's projected with a below-average PER for a number of reasons. Among those: her turnovers, which hurt quite a bit relative to the similar Ontario player that precedes her on this list; she's projected to have the same number of TOs as made baskets.



Kelly Vass
5-6 guard, 3rd year, St. Thomas University
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2011-12
ACAA
1st
474
10.9
4.1
2.6
0.0
3.8
22.1
8.4
50.9%
26.2%
33.4
2012-13
ACAA
2nd
530
9.9
4.3
4.3
0.1
4.2
20.9
9.1
44.1%
25.2%
37.1
2013-14
CIS
3rd
413
7.2
3.7
2.8
0.1
3.5
13.8
7.1
40.0%
16.4%
17.0
Most similar: Joanna Zalesiak, Grace Fishbein, Katie Goggins

Vass had the best defensive rating of any player for whom I have statistics, mostly because 10% of her opponents' possessions ended with her getting a steal, an unheard-of number. At the risk of comparing apples to anthropology, that's almost double the NBA single-season record. These are the sorts of accomplishments you see when a team goes 29-2 and outscores the opposition 30 points per game on average, which is a nicer way of saying maybe the ACAA competition isn't so great.

Regardless, she may not be transferring anywhere, not only because most of the players we identify here don't, but also because she told the Aquinian last month, in part, "I couldn’t see myself going to another school now."

There's no truth to the rumour that her projection includes bonus points for following The CIS Blog on Twitter.



Megan Wood
5-11 forward, 3rd year, Grant MacEwan University
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
752
16.4
9.7
1.3
0.6
1.1
21.0
12.4
50.3%
23.4%
32.1
2013-14
CIS
3rd
586
10.1
6.8
0.7
0.6
0.8
13.8
9.2
47.0%
15.2%
15.5
Most similar: Lindsay Druery, Holly Strom, Kendall MacLeod

Wood, the ACAC rookie of the year, previously played volleyball for Red Deer College, and for a second I was thinking of adding in those stats too, for the sake of whimsy more than anything else (she definitely increased her number of blocks, for one).

In one of her first games of basketball after the year away from the game, she dropped 20 points on UVic in October, one of only nine players to do so this year. In a nice coincidence, one of the other nine was her #2 comparison Holly Strom, who scored 25 and 31 a month later.



Kelly O'Hallahan
5-9 guard, 3rd year, Grande Prairie Regional College
Season
Conf/Lg
Year
Minutes
Per Game
Per 40
eFG%UsagePER
PTSREBASTBLKSTLPTSREB
2011-12
ACAC
1st
509
12.4
6.0
1.6
0.2
2.2
19.5
9.4
46.9%
23.7%
27.4
2012-13
ACAC
2nd
714
20.2
9.2
2.2
0.5
3.1
23.8
10.9
45.3%
27.8%
33.9
2013-14
CIS
3rd
527
10.4
5.7
1.0
0.4
1.9
15.7
8.6
40.5%
18.1%
15.1
Most similar: Amy Ogidan, Jessica Franz, Kaylah Barrett

Would have led the nation in scoring if not for Jylisa Williams, and the two of them are the only two here to make the list of CCAA All-Canadians.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, SMU's Justine Colley tops our women's player rankings this year, though the leader's name on the men's side may not be what you are expecting...

A bit of explanation. For the first time, this year's rankings include all playoff and Final 8 stats (both championship-side and consolation-side games). We are also ranking players slightly differently than we have in the past, combining their PER with the percentage of minutes they played, and giving the rest of the time to a replacement player. We also adjust for strength of schedule. Colley, for example, played 932 minutes when totalling the AUS Final 6 and CIS Final 8, or 83% of the minutes she could have played had she never left the floor. For the other 17%, we assign a PER of 6.0 — a very low number; the average is always 15.0 — that represents what a replacement-level, freely-available player would put up if given the playing time. This gives more credit to players who are on the floor more often, as those are minutes that don't have to be filled by others on the roster. Colley's actual PER of 46.9 is then adjusted to 42.3 to account for her "missed" playing time — though, really, she played quite a lot, more often than most of the players in the top 25.

Behind Colley, who topped the list for the third year in a row, are Windsor's Jessica Clémençon (who was somehow not named OUA West MVP), UBC's Kris Young, Saskatchewan's Dalyce Emmerson, and TRU's Diane Schuetze. Colley and Young were conference MVPs, and all but Emmerson were named first- or second-team All-Canadians. The second-highest PER actually belonged to Brittany Read of Regina, but she only played about half the time for the Cougars as opposed to the 70% or 75% the other top players did, so she is lower as a result of that missed time.

Amazingly, three Windsor Lancers found themselves in the top 10: Miah-Marie Langlois at 7, and Korissa Williams right behind her. It's too simple by half to say those players are three reasons why Windsor's won three championships in a row, but also not inaccurate either. Clémençon has been no lower than sixth in her four years in the league, and Langlois and Williams have been ranked among the best for each of the last three years.

**

And what about that unexpected result among the men, you ask?

Well, the overall leader was not named as an All-Canadian, nor the MVP of his conference. It was Alberta's Kenneth Otieno, with a PER of 30.3 (the highest in CIS) in 77% of available minutes. His shooting percentages were basically just as good as Phil Scrubb, one of the best players in the country of course, but on top of that he grabbed 15% of available defensive rebounds (Scrubb: 10%), turned the ball over only 10% of the time (nobody else in the top 20 was below 12%, averaging 16%), and generally played more of Alberta's minutes than expected for someone with his stats.

Otieno leads UVic's Terrell Evans (also not a first-team CW all-star), Scrubb, Calgary's Thijin Moses (who was robbed of even second-team Canada West recognition), Ward, and another Dino in Jarred Ogungbemi-Jackson. Just like with the women's champions, three Carleton players ended up in the top 15 (Tyson Hinz 7, Thomas Scrubb 15), as well as Clinton Springer-Williams at 39.

Overall, though, these aren't meant to be definitive rankings from 1 to 600 or however many players there are. It's just a way to compare players on different teams with different skill sets. PER, the basis for the rankings, is not great at measuring defensive contributions (few basic boxscore stats are), but does a pretty good job at identifying the best players overall.

**

Full rankings: men's and women's.

Past years are also included.
Game 2 of the 2013 CIS PotashCorp University Cup saw the #2 seeded Varsity Reds dash the hopes of the hometown Huskies after spotting them a goal in the second period. UNB had a certain edge in shots while even strength, but it wasn't until Jimmy Bubnick scored on the Saskatchewan power play that the V-Reds "woke up" and got their own power play clicking. Five minutes after the Bubnick goal, forward-turned-defenceman Daine Todd got the puck past Huskies netminder Ryan Holfeld, but it took several minutes for the officials to confer before deciding that the puck had indeed crossed the line. In the last minute of the period the V-Reds were on another power play and Tyler Carroll was the one-timer shooter on the end of a tic-tac-toe passing play.

Josh Schaefer Photography

The Huskies pushed back hard in the third period, and had their chances, but with just over three minutes to go Todd decided to skate the puck out of trouble in the UNB zone, just kept going and had everyone in the building, and on the ice, watching him as he weaved his way deep down the right side. No one picked up Antoine Houde-Caron racing down the left side, who snapped the cross-ice Todd pass into the yawning net, driving a dagger into the Huskies hearts.

UNB outshot the Huskies 42-24 in the 3-1 win and get a day off before playing the UQTR Patriotes on Saturday night. The Huskies have to regroup and play UQTR on Friday night.

CIS game story and game sheet.
You know when they say that the fear of players and fans at a short tournament like the University Cup is running into a hot goalie - well it happened to the top-ranked and favourite Alberta Golden Bears as they outshot the Waterloo Warriors 43-13, yet still lost 2-1 in the first game at the 2013 University Cup in Saskatoon.

(photo courtesy of Josh Schaefer Photography)

All the goals in the game came on power plays. The CIS's top point guy, Justin Larson, put the underdog Warriors up 1-0 at 14:09 on a sweet pass from Colin Behenna. There wasn't another goal until 7:55 of the third when Blake Chartier was all alone in front of the net to put in another Behenna pass. Alberta finally scored on the PP at 16:30 of the third as Torrie Dyke scored on the rebound of a heavy Jesse Craige shot.

The Bears hit the crossbar or posts five times in the game, including a final scoring attempt as time expired. Player of Game Keaton Hartigan made 42 saves in the game to steal the win, and break the afternoon pool wide open.

CIS game capsule and score sheet
The 2013 PostashCorp University Cup presented by Co-Op kicked off last night with the annual awards ceremony immediately followed by a fund-raising banquet for the Saskatchewan Huskies with the CBC's Ron MacLean as the guest speaker.

You can read the CIS's recap of all the winners on the official CIS website, so I won't repeat it here. Suffice to say a bit of a surprise that Saint Mary's Huskies Lucas Bloodoff was named the CIS player of the year, and his coach, Trevor Stienburg, was named coach of the year (for the fourth time).

Another thing that stuck out was that of the six teams participating in this year's University Cup, only UNB failed to have a player named as an All-Canadian to one of the all-star teams (first, second, or all-rookie).

I'll be back with more later, but the CIS has an excellent statistical preview of all six teams that is a must-read.

Games start shortly, with the University of Alberta Golden Bears kicking it off against the Waterloo Warriors at 1:00 pm local time (3:00 pm EDT, 4:00 pm ADT).
The Vanier Cup-Grey Cup pairing we saw in 2011 and 2012 may not return any time soon. The pairing seemed to work fairly well in terms of bringing new fans and media attention to the CIS championship (2012 in particular saw excellent attendance and TV ratings), but there was some dissatisfaction from the CIS side, and now it's sounding like the twain may never be paired again (at least for the next little while). 2013 was obviously a no-go thanks to logistical issues in Regina, leading to the decision to send this year's Vanier to Laval, but it looked for a while like 2014 might mark a chance to reunite the games. A source tells me that isn't happening, though, and one key reason why is apparently a CIS plan to sign a deal with Rogers for broadcast rights to football, basketball and hockey championships. That makes sense on many levels (Rogers needs programming inventory, especially now that they've bought The Score, and The Score is a logical destination for CIS programming), and it may increase the profile of several CIS championships, but moving away from the Grey Cup could pose some challenges for the Vanier. I explore the situation further over at 55-Yard Line.
OTTAWA — Ibid., see the game from 364 days ago. Only this time it was not nearly as close as Carleton doubled the previous record for greatest margin of victory in a CIS final.

You might think the score was whatever the Carleton Ravens beat Lakehead by, but you'd be wrong. It is really Carleton 9, J.K. Rowling 7 since the Ravens of Dave Smart are like the Harry Potter franchise in its day, unstoppable, only Smart hasn't run out of books. To put it in fluent nerd, playing the Ravens with Phil Scrubb, Thomas Scrubb, Clinton Springer-Williams and Tyson Hinz is like showing up a Hogwarts for a Quidditch match after forgetting the brooms. Would it be be nosy to reach up and flick Hinz's bangs back to check for the lightning bolt scar? Oh, and Victor Raso is waiting in the wings as a transfer.

Even Ravens of recent vintage are fairly agog at how simple it seems for the current bunch who put in the hard work to make it look easy. They are 99-2 in CIS play during Phil Scrubb's three seasons. One loss in a season opener this year at Windsor and one against Lakehead in the OUA Wilson Cup in 2011 after a No. 1 seed at the Final 8 was already tucked away. That's it. Their three-year average winning margin is 30 points against everyone in Canada, but it jumps to 32 if you factor out contests vs. their two gamest foes, the Lakehead Thunderwolves and Ottawa Gee-Gees, who took the silver and bronze to give Ontario University Athletics a podium sweep.

There is no team which is such a confluence of caring so much and capability. As long as someone named Smart is associated with Carleton, there is no chance of the Ravens ending up in sports history's remainder bin like the Edmonton Varsity Grads, the world-beating team of the pre-World War II era that eventually gave it up when they ran out of competition. Dave Smart makes sure his teams internalize the notion that the scoreboard resets at zero when the world turns.

The big take-homes today? Carleton, whose core four is coming back last season, set a record (and then some) for the biggest winning margin in a CIS final with its 50-point win. Lakehead, which is graduating a half-dozen from the Great Group of Dudes, set the mark for fewest points scored with 42. In last year's final, Carleton kept Alberta under an effective-field goal percentage of 40%; in this one, they pushed Lakehead under 30% and made a serious game look almost comical.

There is something epochal, at least within the small world of Canadian university basketball, unfolding at the Ravens' Nest. The gap between Carleton and the Rest of Canada wasn't like this before the Scrubb boys headed east. Carleton did not lead the country in SRS in 2008-09 when it won its sixth title; runner-up UBC did.

The Ravens have also finished at least 10 points ahead of anyone else in SRS in successive seasons. Please keep in mind that, this season at least, they did so against the stronger half of the country's most competitive conference, the OUA, where teams get stress-tested twice a week for three months. If the Final 8 didn't have assigned berths for conference runners-up, either Roy Rana's Ryerson Rams or Chris Oliver's Windsor Lancers could have filled in for 8 seed Victoria without causing any drop-off in the depth of the field.

Point being, Carleton faced the toughest opponents the country has to offer this year and it still needs to play a more competitive schedule. One also wonders whether this can become catalytic for getting university hoops more on the nation's sports radar as basketball continues to increase in overall popularity across the country. Bringing three NCAA teams, including a name-brand team such as Syracuse, in for a December tournament might do it.

The announced crowd Sunday was 5,397, but you're left feeling more people need to see this.
OTTAWA — In a perfect world after the bronze-medal game the CIS would skip ahead and give Lakehead’s Great Group of Dudes some kind of red badge of valour and give Carleton its just desserts.

That way, both teams leave with their mystique intact. Lakehead could leave Scotiabank Place with its hard-won image for being the toughest out in the country west of the Rideau Canal. The Ravens, who got 46 points from the Scrubbs (Phil 26, Thomas 20) in their 84-69 disassembling of Owen Klassen and Acadia, can collect yet more championship hardware. Of course, the game has to be played and there are no automatics when it's two teams of human beings, but that's how it looks as the endgame appears.

The Ravens, running a four-man tag team at Klassen, just heated up gradually as the game wore on in front of 5,011 at Scotiabank Place. They shot an effective 42 per cent during a rugged first half, 45% in the third quarter and then 79% in the final 10. They went off on a high note and now don't have to worry about Ottawa.

"If Lakehead beats us, they’re going to beat us at our very best," said Carleton coach Dave Smart, whose team held all-Canadian Klassen to 17 points on 3-of-9 shooting and forced Acadia's Tyler Scott into a 3-for-18, 11-point night. "To be very frank, Ottawa might have beat us not at our best just because I think our guys... our guys are nice guys. They would have been really worried about... they would have been trying not necessarily to win a national championship, but trying not to lose it to Ottawa.

"I feel bad for Ottawa because they've been playing so well. But from my perspective, I know my guys will be at least out trying to win. If Lakehead beats us, which they could because they're a good team, it'll be because they beat us on a day we were being aggressive."

"Beating a team that good four times — we're not idiots," Smart added of the all-Ottawa final that went to dust. "We know that's tough. They outplayed us two of three times. The only time we outplayed them was last Saturday [in the OUA Wilson Cup]. It was a three-point game, but we kind of threw it away, we were up 14. Our guys kind of knew they were the favourites going into the game. With Lakehead, these guys have been through getting their heads handed to them by Lakehead [which beat Carleton in the 2011 Wilson Cup and the 2009-10 regular season]."

Essentially, Lakehead is in a tough spot. They're as mentally tough as Carleton, but aren't as efficient. The Thunderwolves, who by Rob's math are 19-point underdogs for Sunday, have made a great run to the final reminiscent of Brock winning it all as the 7 seed in 2008. They came from nine down to beat Ottawa on Saturday, with Joseph Jones scoring nine of his game-high 22 during a euphoric 11-0 run in the final quarter. Friday, they came into the fourth tied with Cape Breton and won by 13.

"Personally, I would have liked to play Ottawa again because they’ve definitely been our toughest challenge," Thomas Scrubb said, who had 20 points on 83 per cent eFG. "We know Lakehead. They’ve got five seasoned guys. They’re going to give everything they have. In terms of intensity, it’s going to be as good as there is."

Acadia never quit, with hometown guard Sean Stoqua getting 20 against a team coached by his former club coach, Smart. But there was a significant difference between how the Axemen rooting section reacted after a basket kept Acadia within a dozen or so, and how their bench was a still life. The players knew it had slipped away earlier, when Phil Scrubb scored eight points during a second-half opening 12-2 run.

There’s no emotion with them," Acadia coach Steve Baur said. "It’s just the same with them. We get wrapped up in the negative and that’s when they capitalize."

"[Phil Scrubb] gets a couple looks and he gets in a rhythm," added Baur. "When he gets in a rhythm he’s tough. He’s tough even when he’s not in a rhythm."

Klassen (17 points, six boards, two blocks, two steals) helped Acadia stay close for 20 minutes. But the wisdom of keeping fifth-year forward Kyle Smendziuk was borne out for Carleton, as the 6-7 veteran led the Klassen tag team during his 14 minutes in the game.

"This was why Kyle was starting," Smart said. "We knew at some point to win a national championship, we were going to have to go through Acadia and Owen, Kyle’s not the greatest scorer. We have Dan [Penner], Kevin [Churchill] and if we move Tommy [Scrubb] to the four, three guys who can score. And we never started ’em because we knew about Owen. He did a great job on Owen. Owen worked his butt off when Kyle was on, but he would say that was the toughest guy he had on him."

Meantime, Carleton's big man, Tyson Hinz, had a 15-point, 11-rebound, four-steal double-double. The stat sheet doesn't show how many second assists the former player of the year had.

"Once we started getting the ball inside to Tyson, everything just opened up," Phil Scrubb said. "He’s a great passer out of the post. That opens up some open shots and some threes."

Meantime, as midnight approaches, the media room is empty except for the elephant over in the corner. What's that he's saying? Carleton beat Lakehead by 21 and 41 points in their two previous matchups? And Clinton Springer-Williams, who along with Thomas Scrubb gives the Ravens a huge size advantage at the wing spots, hadn't joined the Ravens when Lakehead beat Carleton twice in two seasons?

Lakehead could have another surprise. But Acadia could only stay with Carleton for 20 minutes. The elephant is also muttering something that it beggars belief to think Carleton would lose at nationals to an OUA team. That record ninth national title seems close, although it's not the best one just because it's the next one.

"As much as the school will want to make it about the school and the program and people will want to make it about the coach, it's not about the coach, it's about the individuals playing," Smart said. "This is just one for the kids, it's one for the Lakehead kids. I'm looking forward to it. It's a team we have the utmost respect for. Our kids like them a lot. They kicked our butts two years ago in the Ontario final."
In a game where two teams struggle mightily to score, one big run is often all it takes.

For the Lakehead Thunderwolves, that one brilliant fourth quarter stretch proved enough to send them to their first CIS championship game since 1977. Lakehead used a brilliant 16-2 run in the final frame, then held on to earn a 66-62 win over the Ottawa Gee-Gees, and a spot in the national title game tomorrow against either Acadia or Carleton.

Joseph Jones, one of six Lakehead fifth-year seniors, hit four clutch free throws in the game's final minute to seal the victory, pouring in a game-high 24 points on 13 shots.

"[Jones] didn't want to end the season today," Lakehead coach Scott Morrison told the media after the game. "It was the same thing last week against Windsor [when Jones scored 23 points in the OUA bronze-medal game]. He had a tough start and we had to get him out of the game. He was turning the ball over and made some mistakes … once he got that three to fall, that was all we needed. We got rolling then. We've rallied around JJ lots of times in the past."

The Thunderwolves trailed 51-44 early in the fourth quarter, but produced a wild stretch that included two triples by Jones.

"I thought we could hang on until the TV timeout," said Ottawa coach James Derouin, referring to the run that saw his four-point lead turn into a 60-53 deficit around the halfway mark of the fourth. "I knew we were going to make one more run and I wanted to keep all of my [three second-half] timeouts. I thought long and hard about burning one. It's really tough with the TV timeouts to burn one at the 5:30 mark. They just made two or three incredible ones and one incredible three [by Jones].

"In hindsight, could I have burned a timeout? That's probably something I'll wrestle with all summer."

Lakehead shot just 30.9% for the game, but scored eight points in 47 seconds with 4:51 remaining in the game. The Gee-Gees would get within four at 62-58 with under two minutes to go, but Jones stepped up again. His timely accuracy at the charity stripe, going 4-for-4 in the last 15 seconds, kept Ottawa from ever having a chance to tie the game.

Second team All-Canadian and fifth-year senior Warren Ward scored 21 for the Gee-Gees, but received little support from his squad in an attempt to reach the championship. Aside from Ward, Ottawa shot just 28% from the field, and was unable to recover from Lakehead's furious charge in the fourth quarter.

Also of note was the high number of fouls. Yoosrie Salhia received two personal fouls after just 53 seconds, and sat the rest of the half. Overall, each team was whistled about 30 to 40 per cent more often than usual, at 24 and 25 fouls rather than their season averages of about 17 or 18.

"I'm trying to say this in a politically correct way — I don't think it had an impact on why we lost," said Derouin about the officiating. "I think Lakehead was probably just as frustrated at times. For me, where I was frustrated was that all season, OUA games have been a war. Everything small, we've been able to play through it."

"The kids only know one way to play because we play 30 games under that style," Derouin continued. "That was an issue, but we did lose our composure. That didn't help with gaining favour with the referees."

The GGODs' victory keeps the championship aspirations alive for a senior-heavy team that has helped revitalize Morrison's program. In addition to Jones, this weekend will feature the final CIS games for forwards Matthew Schmidt, Yoosrie Salhia and Brendan King along with guards Ben Johnson and Greg Carter.

"A lot of people put their blood, sweat and tears into this and here we are," said Morrison. "Last time Lakehead was in the championship game, not one person in our locker room was even alive, including me."

After falling awkwardly with Gee-Gees' centre Jordan Vig, Carter suffered a shoulder injury. He described it as a non-factor for Sunday's final, but Morrison said the guard played the last three minutes of the game with the shoulder "out of his socket."

"I'm assuming we're not going to have him [in the final]. It's the biggest game of his career, if he can give us one minute or 40 minutes, he's going to give us whatever he's got," said Morrison.

The final will take place at 3:30 PM ET Sunday.
OTTAWA — Dave Smart keeps claiming Carleton is building, but did his team really need that many bricks from Victoria?

Carleton made sure everyone could start working on those 'can Acadia do it?' stories early, showing the Vikes how to slow the tempo and still score in an 83-46 win that capped Day 1 of the CIS Final 8. The Vikes went through a 13-minute, 56-second stretch from late in the first quarter to the first minute of the third where they did not score a single basket.

These Ravens have encountered trouble spots where they put opponents in a deep freeze but gets turgid offensively itself. That didn't happen, as they produced a 42-point first half while barely going to their out pitch, the three-ball. After autopiloting home, they might have enjoyed that for a nanosecond before shifting focus to Acadia and Owen Klassen, which played Carleton close for more than 30 minutes at the 2012 nationals in Halifax.

"He's going to be a problem for us," guard Clinton Springer-Williams, who had 15 points and seven rebounds in 24 minutes on 6-of-7 shooting, said of the 6-foot-10 Klassen. "He's a really good post. We really got to control him and make sure he's not effective as normal."

"We had a good game," Springer-Williams added. "If we play defence and rebound like we can, we should have a lot of games like that."

Phil Scrubb had 13 for Carleton. Kevin Churchill had 11 off the bench. Michael Acheampong had 13 for Victoria.

It's probably a little from Column A and a little from Column B, but Carleton wasn't statistically outstanding, by its own standards, and still won by 37. It avoided turnovers at the same rate it usually does with 11 and only nabbed a couple more rebounds than is typical for this team. Part of that was Carleton being good, while part of that was Victoria struggling to execute its patient game against the team which wrote the book on it. Victoria had the dual dubious distinction of a season low for points and for margin of defeat.

"They struggled shooting the ball early and then they got themselves in a hole," an empathetic Smart said. "The one thing we are is a tough team to play when you get in a hole. They're a good team. They beat up UBC a couple times. To be one of the two teams to come out of Canada West, you have to have a really great season. What I think happened is that from the first quarter through the second quarter they missed some shots. Maybe a little of that got in their head from the first time we played them [last fall]."

It was a much more thorough first-round win than Carleton had in 2008 and '10 when it hosted the Final 8 but lost on Semifinal Saturday. That doesn't necessarily portend anything for a matchup against a much more athletic Acadia team with Klassen and Tyler Scott, who had 29 points in the Axemen's win over UBC.

The 2008 semifinal was a long time ago, but that Acadia team had size inside and was potent from the perimeter, not unlike Steve Baur's current Axemen. Klassen requires extra attention inside, while the likes of Scott, Anthony Sears and Carleton transfers Anthony Ashe and Sean Stoqua can be prolific.

"They're as talented, if not the most talented team in the country," Smart said. "They have toughest matchup. People can debate whether he [Klassen] is the best player in the country, but he's certainly the best matchup and everything goes through him. They can really score. Scott, Anthony Ashe can really score and Sean Stoqua has played in my [Ottawa Guardsmen] club program since he was in Grade 8.

"I think with a guy like Owen, it's really tough to be successful doing one or two things," Smart added. "We've worked hard all year on trying to do some things differently on posts. I'm sure whatever we pick to do will be the wrong thing to do and then we'll be down and have to come back."

Shutting down Acadia from the perimeter will also be paramount. When Carleton has lost, it's because teams were hot from outside.

"We just got to focus on not letting him go to his strengths," Springer-Williams said of Scott.
Two years make a big difference, and so does a career shooting night.

The Acadia Axemen turned the tables on the UBC Thunderbirds, who knocked them out of the CIS Final 8 in 2011, by earning an 89-80 victory Friday night thanks to 29 points from second year guard Tyler Scott.

Scott finished 10 for 12 from the floor, including 7 of 8 from downtown, propelling the Axemen to the national semifinal against the winner of Carleton and Victoria.

The Thunderbirds started the second half on a 9-2 to run to make it 41-40 Acadia, but the Axemen responded with a frenetic finish to the quarter that saw Scott drain a long fadeway three — his sixth of the night — to make it 64-57 Axemen through three quarters.

UBC would get within five with 4:40 remaining on a basket from Tommy Nixon, but couldn’t close the gap as Acadia pulled away for the eight-point victory. Jordan Jensen-Whyte missed a wide open three-pointer that would have brought the Thunderbirds within three points with just over 30 seconds to go, then Acadia’s Anthony Ashe drilled a long two to make it 86-78, effectively ending UBC’s hopes.

Scott’s incredible performance saw him go six-for-six in the first half, including four threes. The second year guard would not miss a shot until 5:45 in the third quarter on the way to his 29-point outburst, while standout big man Owen Klassen contributed 15 points for the Axemen, including three powerful dunks.

The Thunderbirds managed to shoot just 41% from the floor and made 18 turnovers, often looking impatient with their shot selection and passing in a fast-paced game. The Axemen shot 47% and were propelled by Scott’s stellar 7-for-8 performance from long range, leading to an effective field-goal percentage of 53.9%, in addition to their superb 20-for-23 shooting at the free-throw line.

O’Brian Wallace led UBC with 26 points, while Brylle Kamen added 16 of his own.

Acadia faces a potential second round matchup with Carleton, the team that knocked them out in the first round last year and are heavy favourites to win their CIS-record ninth national title (at the time of writing, the Ravens held a 42-19 halftime lead).
OTTAWA — Warren Ward and the Ottawa Gee-Gees are inching closer to the final everyone here wants to see.

The big take-homes from Ottawa's 82-70 quarter-final win over McGill is that coach James Derouin's Gee-Gees got the best break they could have asked for ahead of their showdown against Lakehead, which could set up a hotly anticipated national title game against the Carleton Ravens. In the tournament's protege vs. mentor matchup, Ottawa took control early on the strength of Ward's 23-point, 11-rebound double double and a who's that kid? 12 off the bench from human adrenaline shot Caleb Agada. Ward's teardrop three that took the lead out to 13 with 5:32 to play sealed it, but coach Dave DeAveiro's dog-on-a-bone Redmen made Ottawa work until the final buzzer.

"Coach DeAveiro has those guys playing about as hard as anybody and if anything’s going to prepare us for Lakehead, it’s McGill," Derouin said in praise of his and Ottawa's former coach. "They played right to the end, they played hard and we just gotta find a way to get back ready for tomorrow. It’s a national championship semifinal. We know what Lakehead does, we know they defend, and we know they’re one of the top teams in the country and we gotta be ready to do what we did today.

"It just didn't seem like it would end," Derouin added. "We had guys looking up at the scoreclock."

The two coaches didn't talk much until the post-game handshake.

“He’s disappointed they lost, but he said ‘good luck tomorrow and you guys are going to get ‘em,’” Derouin said. "He’s been telling me most of the season that we had a really good chance of winning the whole thing this year and unfortunately we ran into each other first-round and somebody’s got to lose. But he’s a believer in us and our program and he thinks we got a shot.”

“Friendship kind of goes out the window there for at least 24 hours anyways on game day," Derouin said. You can’t say enough about what Dave’s done with that program. First time at nationals in … I don’t know when 1979 was, it’s a long time ago. And he’s a great coach and they played a great game. I have a lot to thank to Dave for me being in this position. Again I thought he did a great job and he’s doing an unbelievable job with that program.”

The upshot for Ottawa is that it broke 80 despite a 2-for-10, six-point day from leading scorer Johnny Berhanesmeskel. Third-year post player Gabriel Gonthier-Dubue was his usual redoubtable self with 15 points and eight boards, while Ward carried the day. It all played out in a way that seemed to mix a number of Gee-Gees storylines from across the last half-decade — the season-ending losses to Lakehead in DeAveiro's last season at Montpetit Hall and Derouin's first, and the neverending challenge of being a garnet-and-grey Sisyphus rolling his boulder up Mt. Smart off Bronson Ave. across town.

"It’s just a storybook ending for me," said Ward, the fifth-year wing. "Now I play a team that beat us at the buzzer my third year [in the 2011 OUA semifinal] and beat us in our own gym my second season, it’s going to be special. It’s going to be good."

Ottawa also played like it expected to win.

"The celebration seemed pretty tame, I thought, for a team that’s going to the national championship semifinals so that tells me the guys understand there’s more work to be done," Derouin said. "When it comes to nationals, you look at the minutes on both teams — 33s and 35s and 37s — we just gotta rest up. Having the earlier game [Friday] helps us a little bit — a couple extra hours’ rest, we’re just gonna get food and fluid. These guys are young. There’s no time to be tired at this point.”

A Carleton-Ottawa final was never in the cards during the seasons DeAveiro guided the Gee-Gees to the tournament. The McGill skipper, who has revitalized the Redmen much like he did after taking over a moribund Ottawa team at the dawn of the millennium, demurred from putting himself into the story. An Ottawa-Carleton final wouldn't be in the offing, though, if it hasn't been for the makeover he gave the team, before Derouin made it his own.

"I have no place in that, this is James' program," DeAveiro said. "He's done an amazing job with this team. The team's gotten better throughout the year and his kids believe in him and believe in what they're doing. You don't want to play that team. They're very good right now and they have a good chance to win."

McGill, making its first appearance at the tournament since 1979, will try to find solace in winning its consolation-side games. The Redmen got nice lines out of Vincent Dufort (18 points, nine rebounds on 6-of-12), Te'Jour Riley (16 and six), Winn Clark (13 on 6-of-12) and Simon Bibeau (12 on 4-of-9). But lead guard Adrian Hynes-Guery was largely contained, shooting 2-of-9 and scoring just four points across 35 minutes.

"We've been really resilient all year," DeAveiro said. "I'm proud of our kids. We just played a really good team that was better than us.

"If we don't win tomorrow and go 0-2 here, it'll be the same old story, same old song, 'Quebec doesn't deserve to be here.' We have to win two more games [in the consolation side]. It was important we come here and win some games at nationals."

The 18-year-old Agada was the revelation. The Burlington, Ont., native was a prize recruit out of Assumption Catholic, but he barely saw the floor during the Gee-Gees' playoff drive (11 minutes in three games). But Ottawa didn't get untracked until he checked in late in the first half and got two big buckets, a tip-in and a three just before the buzzer that put Ottawa up 28-27 at the break. Agada had 11 points on 4-of-5 in 16 minutes.

"Sometimes as a coach you just gotta play a hunch and Caleb's been doing a great job in practice," Derouin said. "When you back up a guy like Warren Ward sometimes you don’t get a chance to show how much [you’ve] improved over the course of the season. And we talked this week about the fact that with Vince Dufort at the 4, who’s more of a guard than a post player, we knew that we might have to go with our smaller lineup.

"To be honest with you I just had a gut feeling that Caleb was the guy to give us some energy. In the first half, when we picked up the pressure a little bit with him on the floor, I thought that was a big turning point and he’s an energy guy and we needed energy at that point. We had 19 points or whatever at that point and we were just really struggling but what can I say, the kid hasn’t even turned 19 years old yet, he’s a pure freshman right out of high school ... Just an incredible performance and you know what, we don’t win this game without him today, that’s for sure.”

For what it's worth (very little), Ottawa beat Lakehead 82-67 in their Nov. 24 regular season meeting at Montpetit. The seventh-seeded Thunderwolves needed a big lift from their shooters in the early game against Cape Breton, shooting an effective 65 per cent in the second half and getting 25 points overall from Ben Johnson on 7-of-11 from the floor (Johnson missed his only two).

Lakehead's Greg Carter is a disruptive on-the-ball defender who will be going against some young Ottawa guards in Mike L'Africain and Mehdi Tihani. The Thunderwolves are arguably more seasoned in the post with fifth-year bigs Brendan King, Yoosrie Salhia and Matt Schmidt.
OTTAWA — Your shots will eventually start falling as you take more of them — and if you keep going to the national quarterfinals, eventually you’ll make a semifinal, too.

The Lakehead Thunderwolves experienced both of these trends in their favour while putting away Cape Breton Friday afternoon in a furiously-paced 74-61 win, bringing Scott Morrison’s group the farthest they’ve been in four consecutive trips to the Final 8.

CBU, as they do, cranked up the tempo, but Lakehead kept up. Despite terrible first-half shooting (9 for 34 overall, 5 of 17 on threes), the GGODs were down only four at the break. Once baskets started to fall, the game couldn't help but shift back in Lakehead’s direction. It was tied at 48 heading into the last quarter, and then the T-Wolves doubled up on the Capers 26 to 13 with an otherwordly effective field-goal percentage of 81%.

Part of the reason the game was close at halftime was the now four-time-running OUA West defensive player of the year, Greg Carter, who shut down Jimmy Dorsey (now a twice-consecutive AUS MVP). In the first half, Dorsey had more personal fouls (3) than points (2), a fact that was not lost on Morrison following the game.

“You know what, I thought going into the game that we were going to move guys around on [Dorsey], and let different people get a crack at him, but I have to say Greg locked him up pretty good, getting those offensive fouls early was big.”

Dorsey certainly didn’t have his best game overall, scoring only 12 on 15 shots, while Carter forced more than his fair share of misses and turnovers. Or more simply, in Morrison’s words, “for one game the defensive player beat the offensive player.”

As Lakehead pulled away in the fourth, a Ben Johnson three with 2:50 left put them up by 13, shutting down whatever hopes the Capers had at a comeback. Getting that dagger three was partly ironic, as the Thunderwolves' strategy in the second half was, in part, to cut down their long-range attempts while finding more success inside. In so doing, Lakehead also improved their odds simply by avoiding first-year CBU guard Kayon Mayers, who, while only scoring three himself on 1-for-8 shooting, forced several stops in the first half and helped keep it close ... until it wasn’t anymore.

Johnson spoke about the second-half adjustment: “We were able to get more post touches, more paint touches, and they started to open up the three-point line. Once we found that they started to hug [the perimeter], it completely opened up the penetration. Greg made a tough, tough layup where they hit the ball and tipped it in.

“From there it just kind of fuelled us.”

So after ending Dorsey’s career, the strong collection of fifth-year seniors on this Lakehead team — Johnson, Carter, Yoosrie Salhia, Matthew Schmidt, to name just a few — will try to extend theirs. Their next game tips off against a to-be-determined opponent (either Ottawa or McGill) at 5:30pm ET Saturday.
Would you watch the following movie?

  1. A local basketball star returns from playing college ball elsewhere to join his hometown school, and leads them in scoring. He's also selected as a nationwide first-team all-star. But it's not quite enough to push his team over the edge just yet; they will lose the conference championship by one point on their home floor.

  2. The next year, they get closer. This player (already a member of the national team) gets even better, averages 28 points and 14 rebounds, is once again named an all-star, and he carries his team to the national semifinals, where they lose by eight and will ultimately settle for bronze.

  3. To begin his third year with the team, he tops 30 points four times, and they post only one (exhibition) loss, in their first 15 games. After a pair of close misses, could this be the year?

  4. Then, halfway through the season (and this is where the story will get familiar to some of you), while travelling with the team in Florida, that star player dies.

  5. His teammates somehow play another 18 games after his death. They don't lose a single one of them.

  6. And, oh yeah, they win a national championship. At home, in their jammed-to-capacity gym. By one point. The winning shot comes with two seconds left.

These are cynical times and if you made up that screenplay today, people would scoff at the lack of realism. "As if that would really happen." The word "Disney" might be thrown around as a derisive adjective.

Of course, it did really happen, exactly like that.

Many readers already know that the above is the story of Mike Moser and the 1975 Waterloo Warriors men's basketball team. But I'd bet many more out there do not.

I went to many Waterloo basketball games and had friends on the team, but it took me a couple of years to figure out there was more to the story than "Mike Moser died young." The Waterloo athletics department posted a brief video on the subject, "Triumph over Tragedy", nearly two and a half years ago ... over which time it has apparently not even gathered 5,000 views. If a prerequisite for knowing the full Mike Moser story is "watching the current Warriors play basketball several times" or "subscribing to uwwarrior on YouTube" (or, for that matter, reading The CIS Blog) ... well, it's clear not many people in this country will ever make it that far. How many Moser winners in the last ten years know the history of its namesake and what happened to his team?

There's no reason why that story can't be retold — or told for the first time, really. It should have been made into a movie years ago. Done well, it would be better than almost any sports film that's been made since. What doesn't it have? Not much is missing. For all its charms, Hoosiers wasn't about moving on after the sudden death of Jimmy Chitwood. Miracle made millions, and that team certainly succeeded on a larger scale than Waterloo, but there were many more than two seconds left in that game, not to mention another one still to play. Moneyball has the winning streak but not the championship nor any actual drama. Rudy, like many other "based-on" movies, has notable inaccuracies — but you wouldn't need to add or change a thing to the Waterloo story. The actual events are dramatic enough.

The quality of the entertainment provided is secondary, however, to the simple main goal here: telling the story. Maybe then it wouldn't be news, and maybe I wouldn't have to write this again when they give out the Moser next March.
Here's our capsule preview for each of the Final 8 teams, presented in descending order of how likely that team is to win, per our odds based on RPI and SRS. "Offence and defence" are points scored and allowed per game, adjusted for that team's pace factor. "Top-100 players" refers to our player rankings through March 3 (the final version, including Final 8 games, will be published next week). Players marked with 1st or 2nd were first- or second-team conference all-stars and awards listed are conference awards ("conference" meaning OUA East/West in the case of Ontario). "Bracketology consensus" refers to the majority opinion for this team's seeding in our last Bracketology post. "What we thought" refers to our in-season preview of this team, from January. Commentary below provided by Brian Decker unless otherwise noted. Schedule, scores and TV/webcast information are available here.



1. CARLETON RAVENS
RPI / SRS: 1st / +24.2
Odds of winning: 51.7%
Offence and defence: 95-66
Top-100 players and award-winners: Basketball robot Phil Scrubb (1st, player of the year), Tyson Hinz (1st), Thomas Scrubb (2nd, defensive player of the year), Clinton-Springer Williams
How they got here: Host and OUA champions
Bracketology consensus: 1st
Last year: OUA champion, No. 1 seed, 47.5% chance of winning, won tournament.
What we thought: "Anything less than a national title is once again a disappointment for Dave Smart's team. With Ottawa and Ryerson both looking strong, there's more competition for Carleton in the OUA East than in recent years, but it would take a massive upset for either of those (very good) teams to knock off the Ravens"
Opener: Favoured by 24 against UVic, 8pm ET
Outlook: Trying to make it 3 for 3 in national titles in the Scrubb Era, the Ravens have everything to lose as the absolute favourite. That being said, they've reached that status legitimately, with the emergence of Thomas Scrubb this season as another reason for coaches to shake their heads and rub their temples. With an All-Star crew that plays together, it's going to be a tall task for anyone to knock them off.



2. CAPE BRETON CAPERS
RPI / SRS: 2nd / +5.9
Odds of winning: 12.6%
Offence and defence: 80-68
Top-100 players and award-winners: Jimmy Dorsey (1st, MVP), Meshack Lufile, AJ Geugjes (2nd)
How they got here: AUS champions, losing only once in conference play and three times overall
Bracketology consensus: 2nd
Last year: Did not qualify.
What we thought: "If both teams are 100%, the battle between Cape Breton and Acadia for the AUS title should be one of the closest nationwide. With a healthy Dorsey, this team is a legitimate threat at the Final 8."
Opener: Toss-up against Lakehead, 12pm ET
Outlook: Behind Dorsey's monster numbers and a unique style of play, the Capers have set themselves up to be a team nobody wants to face at the Final 8. How interesting would a CBU-Carleton final be? The fastest and slowest teams in the country pace-wise would make an interesting chess match, and it's looking like a distinct possibility.



3. OTTAWA GEE-GEES
RPI / SRS: 3rd / +13.2
Odds of winning: 11.1%
Offence and defence: 84-73
Top-100 players and award-winners: Johnny Berhanemeskel (1st), Warren Ward (1st), Gabriel Gonthier-Dubue
How they got here: OUA finalists, defeating Windsor by 20 points in an OUA semifinal, then gave Carleton a fight in the Wilson Cup
Bracketology consensus: 3rd or 4th, mostly
Last year: Did not qualify.
What we thought: "Dueling with Ryerson for the second spot in the East is a realistic goal. That would give the Gee-Gees a shot at the Wilson Cup final four, where, as Ryerson showed last year, anything can happen. It would be a great story for Warren Ward to finish his career at nationals in Ottawa."
Opener: Favoured by 9 points against McGill, 2:15pm ET
Outlook: The Gee-Gees have perhaps become the buzz of the tournament, going on an impressive run to reach the Final 8 in their hometown (well, kind of). Beating Ryerson, crushing Lakehead and nearly toppling Carleton has been fun to watch, and with Warren Ward set to give it one last go (plus a draw that doesn't put them against Carleton in the first two potential rounds), it wouldn't surprise many at Scotiabank Place to see Ottawa make a run to the final.



4. UBC THUNDERBIRDS
RPI / SRS: 4th / +11.2
Odds of winning: 8.9%
Offence and defence: 81-71
Top-100 players and award-winners: Doug Plumb (1st), Brylle Kamen, David Wagner
How they got here: Canada West champions (holding off UVic's last push)
Bracketology consensus: 3rd
Last year: Did not qualify
What we thought: "UBC has seen its fair share of heartbreak at the Final 8, but missing out on the big dance last year has got to sting for Kevin Hanson's club. With the lead in this year's parity-filled Canada West, UBC could be back in contention for the national title"
Opener: Favoured by 7 points against Acadia, 6:00pm ET
Outlook: Though less star-studded than past Final 8 squads, this year's version of UBC has proven to be up to the task of living up to the program's reputation. That reputation includes a lot of recent heartbreak at the Final 8, and to break out of that shadow, Hanson's squad may need bigger performances from Plumb and Kamen than they've been able to get by with.



7. LAKEHEAD GREAT GROUP OF DUDES
RPI / SRS: 10th / +10.3
Odds of winning: 5.0%
Offence and defence: 78-69
Top-100 players and award-winners: Yoosrie Salhia (1st), Ryan Thomson (1st), Greg Carter (defensive player of the year)
How they got here: Won the OUA bronze-medal game after a 21-point loss to Carleton in the OUA semifinal
Bracketology consensus: 7th
Last year: Wildcard choice after losing an OUA semifinal, No. 4 seed, 5.8% chance of winning, lost 83-71 to UFV in the McMuffin Classic
What we thought: "A win at Winnipeg's Wesmen Classic over the break, feasting on lesser OUA West foes and the return of Thomson should all help Lakehead improve in 2013. An 11-3 mark against the West would give them a 14-7 total and a reasonable shot at finding their way into the Wilson Cup Final Four. If they can do more and catch Windsor, however, they'll have a better shot at facing a non-Carleton team in the semi-finals and possibly punching their fourth straight ticket to the Final 8."
Opener: Tossup against CBU, 12pm ET
Outlook: It's been a fun ride with the GGODs, hasn't it? Thanks to a core of seniors that will be gone after this year, their four trips to nationals after a stunning rise from obscurity have Lakehead a staple of the CIS hoops scene. They may not have enough to make a run to the final (especially with Thomson's status up in the air after a knee injury), but they'll be fun to watch doing it.



8. VICTORIA VIKES
RPI / SRS: 5th / +6.2
Odds of winning: 4.4%
Offence and defence: 80-74
Top-100 players and award-winners: Terrell Evans (somehow only a 2nd-team all-star), Chris McLaughlin, Michael Acheampong
How they got here: CW finalists
Bracketology consensus: 8th
Last year: Did not qualify
Opener: 24-point underdogs against Carleton, 8pm ET
Outlook: Evans has been criminally underrated this year, and with McLaughlin the Vikes provide some serious matchup issues for the undersized Ravens in round one. That may not be enough to stop Carleton on their quest to pass UVic on the all-time national titles list, but it's a solid stepping stone for the program to get back here nonetheless.



6. MCGILL REDMEN
RPI / SRS: 9th / +4.2
Odds of winning: 3.6%
Offence and defence: 72-66
Top-100 players and award-winners: Vincent Dufort (1st), Aleksandar Mitrovic (2nd)
How they got here: RSEQ champions
Bracketology consensus: 6th
Last year: Did not qualify
What we thought: "Not long ago, it looked like McGill was the favourite to come out of Quebec. They've fallen since, but behind the strong play of Dufort and their defence, it's possible for them to return. The RSEQ title and a trip to the Final 8 is still a very, very reasonable goal."
Opener: 9-point underdogs against Ottawa, 2:15pm ET
Outlook: Hey, reaching the Final 8 for the first time in 34 years is sweet, no matter what conference you squeak your way out of. With Ottawa looking solid it's an uphill climb to get out of round one, but the McGill bunch overcame doubts from our midseason previews to get here.



5. ACADIA AXEMEN
RPI / SRS: 12th / +3.6
Odds of winning: 2.7%
Offence and defence: 78-68
Top-100 players and award-winners: Owen Klassen (1st, defensive player of the year), Tyler Scott, Anthony Ashe (2nd)
How they got here: Wildcard team after reaching the AUS final
Bracketology consensus: 7th or 8th
Last year: Surprise AUS champions, No. 8 seed, 3.9% chance of winning, lost 82-68 to Carleton in the first round
What we thought: "If Klassen can return [after his ankle injury and his February court date for assault] and Sears can help on offence, it should be a pretty good battle for the AUS title between Acadia and Cape Breton. If not, however, it could be a long winter in Wolfville."
Opener: 7-point underdogs against UBC, 6pm ET
Outlook: In tough against UBC in a rematch of their 2011 first round game that we covered, the Axemen have grown in leaps and bounds since that underdog appearance two years ago. Klassen gave the Thunderbirds mismatch issues then and he will continue to do so this weekend. With both teams playing a fast pace, this one could be a track meet.
For the first time since 2010, the Cape Breton Capers are AUS men's basketball champions.

The Capers defeated the defending champion Acadia Axemen by a score of 83-75. The Capers trailed for most of the game but showed why they are ranked second in CIS as they poured it on the Axemen in the fourth quarter.

The Axemen led by four points entering the fourth but the Capers would not be stopped, being paced by league MVP Jimmy Dorsey and his 30 points. The simplest explanation for this outcome would be the fact Acadia had no answer for Dorsey, who hit a big three to close out the win, but it was more than that. He went 16 for 16 from the free throw line. One of the main reasons Acadia won versus SMU on Saturday was the Huskies' inability to convert free throws. Dorsey was able to generate scoring opportunities for himself as Caper fans chanted "M-V-P" throughout the game.

A key turning point was during the Caper run midway through the fourth quarter. While trailing by two, CBU decided to ramp up the pace and bring in a full-on press during which Acadia struggled to inbound the ball. Kelson Devereaux and Kayon Mayers were able to force a few key turnovers.

The biggest issue for the Axemen was that they had poor shot selection at times, largely due to CBU's man defence. The Caper defence continued to stay the course and the poor shots eventually no longer fell, allowing Cape Breton to take over.

Owen Klassen, the fourth year forward for the Axemen led Acadia with 24 points to go with eight boards, four steals and four blocks.

With the win, CBU secured a spot in the Final 8 held next week in Ottawa. Cape Breton should retain their No. 2 spot in the tournament seedings. As for Acadia, they are forced to play the waiting game and are at the mercy of the selection committee. The Axemen were ranked all year and will probably be chosen as the wildcard team, but their poor play down the stretch combined with the tournament bracket rules could force them into a low seed and an unfavourable matchup.
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