Bracketology: Halfway home, with 11 days to go

The disarray predicted before the weekend in men's basketball indeed happened: UBC's loss in the Canada West semifinals dropped them from a consensus first-place seeding to anywhere between third and fifth on our ballots this week, rocketing Carleton back to No. 1 and a predicted first-round matchup against a team that's either 24th or 25th in the RPI.

Because UBC now gets the wildcard spot in all of our ballots, that leaves out the AUS runner-up (three of us think that CBU will lose the AUS Final 6 to St. F-X).

Carleton, Windsor, Calgary, and Saskatchewan are the four teams with guaranteed spots in the Final 8 at this point; the last four will be filled after Lakehead flies to Ottawa for the OUA bronze-medal game, after the AUS names a conference winner, after Laval and UQAM play the QUBL final, and after the seeding committee determines whether UBC deserves the wild-card spot.

Jared Book:
1. Carleton (OUA winner / host)
2. St. F-X (AUS winner)
3. Saskatchewan (Canada West winner)
4. UBC (wild card)
5. Windsor (OUA runner-up)
6. Ottawa (OUA third-place)
7. Calgary (Canada West runner-up)
8. UQAM (QUBL winner)

Andrew Bucholtz:
1. Carleton (OUA winner / host)
2. St. F-X (AUS winner)
3. Saskatchewan (CW winner)
4. Windsor (OUA West)
5. UBC (wild-card)
6. Ottawa (OUA third-place)
7. Calgary (CW runner-up)
8. Laval (QUBL winner)

Rob Pettapiece:
1. Carleton (OUA winner / host)
2. St. F-X (AUS winner)
3. Saskatchewan (Canada West winner)
4. UBC (wild card)
5. Windsor (OUA runner-up)
6. Ottawa (OUA third-place)
7. Calgary (Canada West runner-up)
8. Laval (QUBL winner)

Neate Sager:
1. Carleton (OUA winner / host)
2. Cape Breton (AUS winner)
3. UBC (wild card)
4. Saskatchewan (Canada West winner)
5. Windsor (OUA West)
6. Ottawa (OUA third-place)
7. Calgary (Canada West runner-up)
8. UQAM (QUBL winner)
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17 comments:

  1. 1. Carelton
    2. UBC
    3. Cape Breton
    4. Windsor
    5. St. FX
    6. Laval
    7. Calgary
    8. Ottawa

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  2. Nice, thank you so much.

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  3. Cantankerous3/08/2010 10:07 pm

    Don't know why everyone except Neate figures X will win.
    The tournament is in Sydney so that's got to count for something.
    X beat CB by a point in Antigonish but I think the 4,000 mostly Caper fans will propel
    the home team to the AUS title.
    If anything, X might not even be in the championship game.
    They have St. Mary's as potential semi final opponent, a team they have lost to twice.
    If the Q rep is seeded anywhere other than 8th, it would be a travesty.
    I like Neate's seeding and I think that's how it will turn out.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Memo to Mr. Williams....
    The Saskatchewan Huskies, whom you have left off your list, are the CW champions!
    No way X, CB and UBC all make it...one of the AUS teams won't.
    And Laval seeded 6th and Ottawa 8th?
    No way Carleton and Ottawa or any other OUA team meet in the first round.
    Clearly, the Q rep is the weakest team in the draw and will be seeded accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  5. If Ottawa wins and UBC gets the wildcard, I would like to see those teams match up in the first round. The two Joshs going head to head would be something to see.

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  6. Some people are forgeting the logic that conference teams can not play each other in the first round of the playoffs...so OUA teams like ottawa/lakehead cant play carleton or windsor in the first round. This is big because it almost creates the matchups for us.

    Carleton vs Q - Winner
    AUS Winner vs Calgary
    Saskatchewan vs Ottawa/lakehead
    UBC vs Windsor

    Sounds pretty straight forward to me

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  7. Memo to Anonymous.......

    Yes my prediction was weak and not researched enough, I am wrong. I could really only rank the top 3 teams in my opinion all the other teams were educated (at least I thought they were educated) guesses.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anon 10:38 has it broken down nice and clean. In non-CIS basketball events, UBC could probably still rank ahead of Saskatchewan based on body of work but they most certainly won't with the penchant to reward conference champions outside of the QSSF.

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  9. I wish the Final 8 could be expanded to 12 or 16 teams would have been nice to see Mcmaster get a bid

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  10. Yes agreed, McMaster really deserves to be at Nationals! They put in a great season with huge wins throughout the season when facing top opponents. Once they finally got into the Top 10, they proved they deserved it by winning and staying in the Top 10. Then showed how good they were by playing well @ home in the first round of the playoffs.

    ALthough they did give Stfx a good drubbing in pre-season.

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  11. UBC has clinched the wild card in my opinion based on the newest CIS Top 10. They were knocked down to #2 - a clear second choice behind carleton but also clearly ahead of the AUS teams. It would be illogical (though not impossible as this is the CIS) if a team ranked #1 or #2 all season didn't get the wild card.

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  12. Why should anyone give a shit what Sager thinks ... ask anyone at the Ottawa Sun or in any Ottawa media and you'll either hear, "Who?" or "He's a f------ joke." The Ottawa Sun assigns him to write, what, articles about jump rope, for a reason? He'll never be a real sporrtswriter and about time he learned.

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  13. Even if I'm from the Q, I still think it would be near impossible for any of UQAM/Laval to be seeded any higher than 8. They have no win over any of the 7 other teams.

    UQAM lost to Cape Breton (by 6) and Ottawa (by 8).

    Laval lost to Ottawa (by 11), UBC (by 2), Calgary (by 24).

    For those who picked Laval, it's a good sleeper pick, since JF Beaulieu-Maheux has been injured pretty much all year long.

    UQAM won 3 out of the 4 meetings between the 2 teams (the last 3), but Maheux didn't play in the last 2.

    However, you should know that UQAM is 9-0 at home (12-2 overall...with losses against Cape Breton and Waterloo). No team in the Q has been able to challenge UQAM whatsoever at home this year, but watch out for Laval.

    09' ROY, Gregory St-Amand is out with a broken wrist, which should make things interesting (Kevin Bitondo has done well in the Q semis, replacing St-Amand, with 20 pts / 11 reb).

    It will be a great battle. First ever Final presented in UQAM's sports center

    The game is a rematch from 2006, when UQAM upsetted Laval, in overtime, to make it to the nationals.

    In the Nationals, UQAM lost by 3 to Carleton and by 6 to UBC.

    The game will be available on www.SSNCanada.ca and www.CHOQ.FM/basket.html

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  14. @ Anon 4:58

    Why the hate? I don't know of any of Neate's other work but I think he does a great job with this blog. It's nice to have some people actually pay CIS sport the attention it deserves.

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  15. Let's hope the tone of comments does not go down this rather nasty path. We can make our points without the rude or profane references. Neate sager works hard at maintaining this site, and being one of the best advocates for CIS sport.
    These are opinions and comments. Give us some insight, or a fresh thought ... not a cheap diatribe !

    ReplyDelete
  16. Cantankerous3/10/2010 5:43 pm

    Hey, 4:58...
    It's pretty easy to take gratuitous shots at someone especially when you sign ANONYMOUS.
    That takes major stones!
    At least Neate signs his name to his work and puts himself out there....
    you, on the other hand, nobody knows anything about you.
    Perhaps just as well, because nothing you say is worth the paper you wipe...oh nevermind!

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  17. Thanks ... . I just figure let the guy's comment stand, maybe he/she comes back and realizes how foolish it was.

    ReplyDelete