Basketball: Wednesday OUA West Preview

The New Year is here and that means that the OUA West conference schedule is starting this week. Say goodbye to those pre-Christmas interchange games, and back-to-back Friday/Saturday basketball weekends (well, unless you’re playing Lakehead …or ARE Lakehead), and free up your Wednesday nights and Saturday afternoons.

Now the real season begins for teams in the OUA West, taking on their own conference opponents twice in the next 2 months, and jostling for playoff position. With the first batch of games coming up tonight, I thought I’d preview the matchups since it’s been 5 weeks since the regular season broke for the Christmas holidays.

Women

Waterloo (2-6) at Brock (6-2)
The Warriors struggled in the first part of the season, but strong play from 4th year forward Laura Becotte and 2nd year guard Colleen Quinlan are some bright spots to look positively on. I’m not sure they can compete with a strong Badgers squad looking to prove themselves.

Laurier (3-5) at Guelph (1-7)
With the youngest team in recent history, Angela Orton’s Gryphons will have to rely heavily on Jasmine Douglas if they want to stay close with Renata Adamczyk and the Golden Hawks.

Western (7-1) at Windsor (8-0)
An early battle for first place in the OUA West as the Mustangs take on the undefeated Lancers. Both of these teams are definitely for real, and should stay atop the standings all season, but the Lancers are looking to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke. There was a great article in the Windsor Star today on the Lancers, and it pointed out that this is a team which has beaten No. 4 Laval twice over the holiday break.

Men

Waterloo (5-3) at Brock (3-5)
With all the buzz focused on the nationally ranked teams in the OUA West, nobody is talking about the Warriors, but remember that this is a team that has beaten U of T twice already, is 11th nationwide in RPI, and is tied for third place with Mac and Western. I expect them to come out strong in this part of the season and rack up some early wins, including this game.

Laurier (3-5) at Guelph (3-5)
The Golden Hawks started the season ranked No. 10 before reality set in, and a sub-.500 record sent them into the Christmas break. The Gryphons are much better than their record suggests, with four losses coming by a cumulative total of 11 points, including a heartbreaking one-point loss to Carleton, and a 3-point loss to Toronto. Jay Mott’s health will be a key to this game, as he has been hobbled by some nagging injuries, but still sits third in the league in scoring.

Western (5-3) vs. Windsor (6-2)
It has appeared to me that the Windsor Lancers, while still ranked nationally (and 4th in RPI), are overrated, despite their record. In a rematch of the 2009 OUA West Final, I expect the Mustangs to prove me right and begin a downward slide for Windsor in the second part of the season.

Obviously, the key matchup on the men’s side is No. 6 McMaster travelling to No. 10 Lakehead on the weekend. I’ve been saying for quite some time now that this Lakehead team is the real deal, and is getting heavily disrespected. This weekend should prove my point.
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9 comments:

  1. I don't know where you get the idea that Windsor is counterfeit.
    Western and Windsor are travel partners and thus have played the exact same teams in exactly the same locations.
    If anything, Western is the team that may have been playing over their heads.
    The Mustangs graduated a lot of talent from last year's squad and even lost 5th year senior Keenan Jepperson to McMaster.
    While the Lancers certainly miss Greg Surmacz, overall I'd say the team is better balanced this year with more speed, depth and athleticism.
    Lakehead is certainly the most improved team in the country from last year.
    But Lakehead had a very favourable schedule in that they played the top OUA East teams at home.
    Carleton, Ottawa, and Toronto are the top teams in the east and Lakehead got them all at home.
    On the other hand, the toughest OUA East team they played on the road was an average Queen's team which they beat by one point.
    Those games against Carleton, Toronto and Queen's could have gone either way so Lakehead's 7-1 could have easily been 4-4 or 5-3.
    The real tests for Lakehead come when they have to play the OUA West's best teams on back to back nights.
    Especially, those games in Windsor should be a litmus test for the T-Wolves.
    Lakehead may be good, but Ottawa U proved they are human.

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  2. Regarding the women's matchup between Windsor and Western: I'm not totally convinced this is the "battle for first place" it's made out to be. The Lancers are a very, very good team but the Mustangs have lost to Ryerson (who they also beat), SMU, and Ottawa. None of those teams are top-10. I think Western might be more in that group of teams than the Windsors and the UBCs and the Albertas.

    (he said, having not seen either Windsor nor Western play this year)

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  3. We'll see tonight if Windsor is indeed overrated.
    The Lancers had a very nice win over the holidays beating NAIA #8 Cedarville (Ohio) sans leading scorer Isaac Kuon. I'm predicting a Windsor win by 10. The women had 2 impressive blowout (20+) wins over #4 Laval. I see Western & Brock as the main rivals to the lady Lancers. Lady Lancers by 14.

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  4. Anonymous,

    Good points, I can’t argue with a lot of what you say, but I don’t ever put a lot of stake in the argument of what a team’s record COULD be. If we’re going to count what a team COULD be, then Guelph should be considered as a 7-1 possibility, shouldn’t they? A win is a win. I don’t see anyone mentioning the point differential when Carleton wins by one point, so why is Lakehead beating Queen’s by one point relevant? Didn’t Windsor only beat Toronto by one point? Should we discount their reputation for that?

    I agree fully, like I said, that the test for Lakehead will be playing the OUA West’s top teams, but the back-to-back argument doesn’t hold a lot of water with me either when it comes to Lakehead. Remember that this is a team that ALWAYS plays back to back, whereas the other teams do not. It is the exception for the rest of the league, and the standard for the T-wolves.

    You can spin all you want that the Lancers are a better team than I give them credit for, but the fact remains that the rankings right now with regards to the OUA West are a complete joke. Lakehead (7-1) ranked #10, Windsor (6-2) ranked #7, and Mac (5-3, tied for 3rd with 2 other teams) ranked #6. I’ve written at length on the reputational bias on the rankings, and I love the fact that we had to stare at those rankings for 5 weeks, when we all know they were a joke.

    With regards to Windsor vs. Western, at the end of tonight's games, I'm sure one of us will feel vindicated...

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  5. Windsor 77 Western 72
    The win solidifies the Lancers grip on 2nd place at 7-2.
    Only explanation I can offer as to why Lakehead is only ranked #10 despite their record is because CIS coaches are taking a wait and see attitude with them.
    Lakehead has been a second division team for years and I guess some coaches can't accept them as legitimate contenders yet.
    But if Lakehead continues to do well, inevitably they'll rise up the ladder and quickly at that.

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  6. I predicted:

    Windsor men by 10 over UWO
    Windsor won by 5 after a horrid 1st quarter. Had Windsor played a full game, they win by 10-12. Gotta like Josh Collins, the Lancers rookie point. Collins had 18 including some huge baskets in the last 2 minutes. Cold as ice for a rookie.
    Windsor women by 14. Almost nailed this one. Windsor women win by 13. Lancer didn't play their usual brand of defense in the first half but Western couldn't stop Windsor either. Lancer's other 6'5" post Iva Peklova has the flu and sat out. Windsor badly outrebounded Western by 50-33. Western will get better when the NCAA D1 transfer is eligible.

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  7. Somebody told me that Ryan Christie has been booted off the team because of insubordinantion and other behaviour
    issues.
    Could someone confirm or deny?
    Also is Terry Licorish and that other guy suiting up in the second half?

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  8. On Christie, it was in the Spectator on Wednesday, he is off the team.

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  9. This guy seems to be a real piece of work.
    In that Hamilton Spectator article, he said he's "not too upset or concerned about it"
    Really?
    He might not be, but I bet his family feels differently.
    I find it sickening that kids with everything going for them piss it all away because they have the emotional maturity of an eight year old.
    What Christie doesn't realize is his actions and decisions now can negatively impact his future well down the line.
    It's time for him to, as the old saying goes, straighten up and fly right.

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